EUR/USD – Bearish as Dollar Tests 99.00

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD presses into 55-day SMA support near 1.1640
• USD recovery strengthens after reclaiming 200-day SMA
• Markets brace for US NFP + Michigan Sentiment
• Euro data likely secondary to US employment shock

Market Overview

EUR/USD remains under pressure as the dollar recovery broadens, pushing DXY toward the 99.00 area and flipping momentum to USD bulls. The pair is now leaning on the interim 55-day SMA zone, and traders are increasingly reluctant to step in ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Eurozone releases (Germany trade/industrial output, Eurozone retail sales, plus ECB Lane) are on the schedule, but the market’s next directional impulse is likely to come from US labor data and Fed speak.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding near oversold territory
• Price stays below the 20-period EMA
• Bearish pressure persists unless 1.1696 is reclaimed

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.1696; 1.1731
Support: 1.1605; 1.1568

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD is trading like a “sell rallies” market while the dollar recovery holds. If NFP prints strong, 1.1605 becomes the pressure point quickly. A weak NFP is the cleanest trigger for a short-covering rebound back toward 1.1696–1.1731.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) – Under Pressure from USD and Yields

Key Highlights

• Gold drifts toward $4,400 as USD and yields firm up
• DXY strength weighs on dollar-denominated metals
• Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing adds flow risk
• NFP is the main volatility trigger for metals

Market Overview

Gold remains heavy after extending its retracement, pressured by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, which raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Add-on volatility risk comes from Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing flows, which can create mechanical selling or sharp intraday swings even without a macro catalyst. With silver also softer, the metals complex is correcting into Friday’s data event.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rising toward overbought (bounce attempt)
• Price still above the 20-period EMA
• Recovery needs follow-through above 4,501

Key Levels

Resistance: 4501.24; 4550.92
Support: 4408.95; 4359.89

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is trying to stabilize, but it’s fighting a stronger USD/yield backdrop. If NFP surprises hot, gold risks retesting 4,408 and possibly 4,360. A soft NFP is the path for a quick snapback toward 4,501–4,551.

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GBP/USD – Sterling Weak as USD Strength Dominates

Key Highlights

• Cable marks a third straight daily decline
• USD strength overwhelms any UK-side support
• UK calendar is quiet; USD event risk dominates
• NFP is the swing catalyst for a bounce or breakdown

Market Overview

GBP/USD remains defensive, trading lower as the dollar recovery stays broad-based. With UK data light into the weekend, Cable is effectively a USD proxy going into Friday’s employment report. The technical rejection from earlier highs has shifted momentum bearish, and the market is now watching whether support can hold through the data event.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic recovering from oversold
• Price remains below the 20-period EMA
• Structure stays bearish unless 1.3466 is reclaimed

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.3466; 1.3509
Support: 1.3391; 1.3347

Fremora Takeaway

Cable is stabilizing slightly, but the trend is still down while it trades below the 20 EMA. A strong NFP can push it toward 1.3391/1.3347 quickly. A weak NFP is the most likely trigger for a sharp rebound back toward 1.3466–1.3509.