SPX/USD – Records Hold as CPI Looms

Key Highlights

• Index stays firm near record highs
• Market shrugs off political noise—for now
• CPI is the main risk event for equities
• Momentum positive, but stretched near resistance

Market Overview

Equities remain resilient despite the Fed headline risk, with traders focusing on inflation and earnings momentum. CPI is the swing factor: a soft print reinforces easing expectations and supports risk appetite, while a hot print can trigger quick de-risking after strong highs.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic elevated (momentum still strong)
• Price holding above the 20-period EMA
• Near-term upside capped by 7006–7049 band

Key Levels

Resistance: 7006.93; 7049.16
Support: 6938.70; 6893.22

Fremora Takeaway

Trend stays constructive while above 6939, but CPI can flip sentiment fast. A soft CPI supports a run toward 7007–7049; a hot CPI risks a pullback toward 6939 and possibly 6893.

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USO/USD (WTI) – Consolidating Under $60, Breakout Watch

Key Highlights

• WTI holds firm just under $60
• Geopolitical premium still supports bids
• Momentum builds, but $60 remains the wall
• CPI can shift USD and demand narrative

Market Overview

Oil continues to balance geopolitics and supply realities, with price holding above key averages while traders watch for a clean break above $60. The market is still paying a risk premium, but follow-through needs either fresh supply disruption signals or supportive macro sentiment.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic pushing higher (momentum improving)
• Price above the 20-period EMA
• Breakout trigger sits at 60.50, then 61.69

Key Levels

Resistance: 60.50; 61.69
Support: 58.56; 57.48

Fremora Takeaway

WTI is in “breakout-or-fade” territory. A push through 60.50 can accelerate toward 61.69, but failure to clear $60 often brings pullbacks—first watch 58.56 as the line bulls need to defend.