EUR/USD — CPI calms, USD still rebounds

Key Highlights

• EUR slips back under 1.1700 after Monday’s bounce fails
• CPI came in slightly softer, but still “sticky enough” for Fed patience
• DXY back above 99 as yields firm up
• Retail Sales + PPI next: USD volatility risk stays high

Market Overview
EUR/USD gave back Monday’s optimism as the Dollar regained traction after CPI. The data wasn’t “hot,” but it didn’t force a dovish pivot either—so markets leaned into the Fed staying patient. With more US data landing today (PPI, Retail Sales, Beige Book), EUR/USD remains reactive to USD momentum rather than Euro-side catalysts.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifting lower toward oversold
• Price holding below the 20-period EMA
• Bias: downside pressure unless the pair reclaims the EMA

Key Levels
Resistance: 1.1702; 1.1740
Support: 1.1611; 1.1568

Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD is in “sell-the-rally” posture until it gets back above 1.1702 and holds. If 1.1611 breaks, the market is signaling the CPI bounce is fully washed out and the next support band comes into focus fast.

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GOLD — Records hold as Fed credibility gets questioned

Key Highlights

• Gold holds near record highs even with a firmer USD
• CPI slightly softer, but not soft enough to kill rate-cut pricing
• Fed independence headlines keep “insurance demand” alive
• Iran escalation risk adds an extra safe-haven layer

Market Overview
Gold stayed strong because this isn’t only a rates story—it’s also a credibility story. When markets start questioning whether the Fed can act freely (and consistently), gold gets a structural bid. Add the Iran tension premium and gold can stay elevated even on days the Dollar doesn’t collapse.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic neutral (room either way)
• Price sitting above the 20-period EMA
• Structure: bullish consolidation, not a reversal signal yet

Key Levels
Resistance: 4664.11; 4719.26
Support: 4572.76; 4515.88

Fremora Takeaway
Gold is acting like a “stress hedge” again—policy credibility + geopolitics. As long as price holds above 4572, the market is treating dips as pauses, not exits. A clean break above 4664 would likely reopen momentum.

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GBP/USD — Dollar strength interrupts the rebound

Key Highlights

• Cable gives back Monday’s pop as USD firms after CPI
• Risk mood shaky: banks and policy headlines pressured sentiment
• UK calendar light near-term; USD remains the driver
• Next real Sterling catalyst is UK data later in the week

Market Overview
GBP/USD is trading like a USD proxy right now. CPI didn’t collapse, yields lifted, and the Dollar bid returned—so Cable rolled over. With limited UK catalysts in the immediate session, Sterling needs either USD weakness or a UK surprise later to regain initiative.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic sliding toward oversold
• Price below the 20-period EMA
• Momentum: bearish unless it reclaims 1.3508

Key Levels
Resistance: 1.3508; 1.3549
Support: 1.3395; 1.3355

Fremora Takeaway
Cable is vulnerable while it stays under the EMA. If 1.3395 holds, you can still frame this as consolidation; if it breaks, the market is confirming USD control and risk-off spillover.