---

SPX/USD (S&P 500) – Rebound Fades Into the Close

Key Highlights

• Semis rally on TSMC capex guidance
• Banks jump on strong earnings
• Oil drop helps sentiment and margins
• Late-session fade signals cautious dip-buying

Market Overview

US equities bounced as investors leaned into AI capex confidence and strong bank earnings. The catch: the rally faded late, suggesting buyers are still selective near high valuations and prefer confirmation over chasing.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rolling lower from overbought
• Price consolidating around the 20-period EMA
• Momentum improving, but not decisive

Key Levels

Resistance: 6984.64; 7002.25
Support: 6941.36; 6923.41

Fremora Takeaway

The bounce was real, but the fade matters: it signals hesitation near key highs. Holding above the 20-EMA keeps the structure constructive, but bulls likely need a clean break and hold above 7000 to regain full momentum.

---

USO/USD (WTI) – Oil Slides as Tensions Cool

Key Highlights

• Iran rhetoric softens, risk premium unwinds
• WTI breaks below $60 psychological level
• Oversupply narrative regains attention
• Technicals oversold, bounce risk rising

Market Overview

Crude reversed hard as the market interpreted Trump’s Iran tone as de-escalation, removing the premium that pushed oil toward $62. At the same time, oversupply headlines resurfaced quickly, reinforcing the bearish bias underneath the geopolitics.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic trying to turn up from oversold
• Price below the 20-period EMA
• Bounce possible, but trend pressure remains

Key Levels

Resistance: 60.11; 61.74
Support: 57.57; 55.88

Fremora Takeaway

Oil is now caught between “oversold bounce” and “oversupplied reality.” If $60 cannot be reclaimed, the market will keep leaning lower toward 57.57 and potentially 55.88. Any bounce is likely corrective unless geopolitics re-escalate meaningfully.