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EUR/USD — Euro Breaks Higher as Trade Risk Undermines Dollar

Key Highlights

• Trump escalates tariff threats against Europe
• EU prepares coordinated retaliation ahead of emergency summit
• Strong Eurozone sentiment data supports confidence
• Capital flows shift away from US assets

Market Overview

EUR/USD extends its advance after breaking above the 1.1700 threshold as markets reassess US policy credibility amid escalating trade rhetoric. President Trump’s widening tariff threats against European nations have intensified concerns over US economic unpredictability, triggering Dollar weakness despite rising Treasury yields. Strong Eurozone sentiment data, including an upside surprise in Germany’s ZEW index, has reinforced Euro resilience as Europe positions itself more independently from US economic influence.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic easing from overbought conditions
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Structure signals a healthy pullback within an intact uptrend

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1761; 1.1792
• Support: 1.1677; 1.1642

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD strength reflects a repricing of US trade and policy risk rather than pure Eurozone optimism. As long as price holds above the 20 EMA, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with geopolitical developments continuing to dominate short-term direction.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Capital Flight Drives Record-Breaking Rally

Key Highlights

• Gold surges to fresh all-time highs
• Trade-war escalation boosts safe-haven demand
• Capital concerns weigh on confidence in US assets
• Global equities and risk sentiment deteriorate

Market Overview

Gold accelerates sharply higher as geopolitical uncertainty and trade escalation between the US and Europe fuel aggressive safe-haven flows. Trump’s expanded tariff threats and unconventional geopolitical demands have undermined confidence in traditional risk assets, driving capital toward gold despite rising yields. The move has been reinforced by symbolic exits from US Treasuries and warnings of emerging “capital wars,” highlighting deeper concerns about US fiscal and political stability.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in overbought territory
• Price extending decisively above the 20-period EMA
• Momentum remains strong with trend acceleration

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5019.57; 5141.66
• Support: 4709.56; 4568.65

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is responding to stacked uncertainty rather than isolated risk events. Sustained strength above previous record levels signals conviction-driven demand, with pullbacks remaining corrective unless key trend support breaks.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Caught Between Dollar Weakness and Trade Risk

Key Highlights

• UK included in expanding US tariff rhetoric
• Mixed UK labor data limits upside momentum
• Dollar weakness provides partial support
• Geopolitics overshadow domestic fundamentals

Market Overview

GBP/USD consolidates as Sterling balances Dollar weakness against rising exposure to US trade retaliation. While UK employment data showed signs of stabilization, Sterling failed to fully capitalize on broad Dollar selling, reflecting caution over Britain’s position amid Trump’s expanding trade offensive. Political criticism of UK policy decisions has added another layer of uncertainty, leaving the Pound sensitive to geopolitical outcomes rather than economic releases.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifting lower toward neutral
• Price holding marginally above the 20-period EMA
• Structure suggests vulnerability if support gives way

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3489; 1.3550
• Support: 1.3391; 1.3339

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling remains reactive rather than assertive, supported by Dollar weakness but constrained by geopolitical exposure. Direction will hinge on whether trade tensions intensify or ease in the coming sessions.