---

EUR/USD — Euro Holds High Ground as Tariff Threats Recede

Key Highlights

• Trump reiterates Greenland framework with NATO
• February 1 tariff threats on eight European nations withdrawn
• US data remains firm, but Dollar stays soft
• Focus shifts to Friday PMIs for Europe and the US

Market Overview

EUR/USD extends higher and consolidates near 1.1750 as markets treat geopolitical de-escalation as the dominant driver. The removal of immediate tariff threats has boosted risk appetite and reinforced Euro resilience, even as US growth and labor indicators remain robust. The Dollar’s inability to respond to stronger data signals that policy uncertainty and easing expectations continue to weigh more heavily than traditional macro support.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in overbought territory
• Price advancing above the 20-period EMA
• Structure signals strong bullish momentum with extension potential

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1775; 1.1808
• Support: 1.1727; 1.1692

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD is trading like geopolitical relief matters more than macro surprises. The uptrend remains intact while price holds above the 20 EMA, but durability hinges on whether the “framework” proves lasting or simply pauses the headline cycle.

---

GOLD (XAU/USD) — Near $5,000 as Policy Uncertainty Sustains Demand

Key Highlights

• Gold prints fresh record highs near the $5,000 threshold
• Strength persists despite equity gains and easing tensions
• Dollar softens even as US data reduces near-term Fed cut odds
• Fed independence concerns remain in focus

Market Overview

Gold pushes higher and holds near 4,967 as investors continue to treat policy uncertainty as a structural risk, not a temporary headline. The rally alongside equities highlights a market environment where gold demand is no longer purely “risk-off,” but increasingly a baseline allocation against leadership volatility, institutional credibility questions, and currency confidence concerns. Even with geopolitical cooling, the rapid shifts in policy tone have left a persistent uncertainty premium supporting bullion.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in overbought territory
• Price extending above the 20-period EMA
• Setup reflects strong momentum with $5,000 in view

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5050.95; 5141.66
• Support: 4888.30; 4787.94

Fremora Takeaway

Gold’s bid is no longer dependent on immediate crisis escalation—it is increasingly tied to trust and credibility pricing. While the trend remains strong above the 20 EMA, the $5,000 zone is a psychological test that may invite pauses even without trend damage.

---

GBP/USD — Sterling Breaks Higher on Risk-On Relief

Key Highlights

• Tariff threats tied to February 1 are withdrawn
• Risk appetite improves, boosting high-beta FX
• Dollar weakens despite strong US growth and jobs data
• UK data focus shifts to Retail Sales and Flash PMIs Friday

Market Overview

GBP/USD advances toward 1.3500 as markets respond to reduced trade-war tail risk and improved sentiment. Sterling’s gains are less about UK fundamentals and more about the removal of a direct geopolitical overhang combined with persistent Dollar softness. With domestic UK data still mixed and BoE easing expectations sensitive, near-term direction is likely to remain headline- and data-dependent into Friday.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rising toward overbought conditions
• Price holding above the 20-period EMA
• Structure signals bullish momentum with room to extend

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3530; 1.3567
• Support: 1.3464; 1.3422

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling is benefiting from relief flows more than domestic strength. The uptrend holds while above the 20 EMA, but follow-through will depend on whether Friday’s UK data confirms resilience or triggers a reality-check pullback.