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EUR/USD — Dollar Data Pressures Euro

Key Highlights

• Strong US ISM manufacturing data lifts Dollar
• NFP release suspended due to government shutdown
• Fed leadership transition adds policy uncertainty
• Eurozone growth improves but lacks near-term impact

Market Overview

EUR/USD remains under pressure after Monday’s decline, stabilizing near the 1.1813 zone as robust US manufacturing data reinforced Dollar strength. The ISM Manufacturing PMI’s jump back into expansion territory challenges the recent “US slowdown” narrative and provides fresh fundamental backing for the Greenback.

However, the federal government shutdown has removed Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release, stripping markets of a key directional catalyst. This data vacuum is likely to keep price action technical and choppy in the near term, with traders hesitant to commit aggressively in either direction.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in oversold territory
• Price trading below the 20-period EMA
• Downtrend intact, but selling pressure showing signs of fatigue

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1870 | 1.1940
• Support: 1.1741 | 1.1669

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD remains technically bearish, but deeply oversold conditions warn against chasing weakness. Unless fresh Dollar-positive catalysts emerge, downside momentum may slow near 1.1740. A recovery above 1.1870 is needed to ease immediate pressure and signal stabilization.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Recovery After Historic Flush

Key Highlights

• Gold rebounds after Friday’s historic collapse
• Profit-taking drove selloff, not fundamental shift
• Geopolitical risk premiums ease modestly
• Shutdown limits macro data visibility

Market Overview

Gold is attempting to rebuild after one of the most violent corrections in modern precious metals history. Following an 11% collapse from record highs, bargain hunters have stepped in near the 4,850 area, helping stabilize price action after forced liquidation swept across metals markets.

The pullback coincided with easing US–Iran tensions and a broader commodities rout, reducing safe-haven urgency. While long-term structural drivers remain intact, near-term confidence is still fragile following such an extreme move.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price remains below the 20-period EMA
• Recovery bounce underway, trend still corrective

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5,091.32 | 5,268.25
• Support: 4,658.04 | 4,491.95

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is in recovery mode, not trend resumption. As long as price remains below the 20 EMA, rallies should be treated as corrective. A break above 5,091 would strengthen the case that the worst of the liquidation is over.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Its Ground

Key Highlights

• Pound stabilizes better than Euro
• Strong US data supports Dollar broadly
• BoE policy expectations provide Sterling buffer
• NFP suspension reduces volatility triggers

Market Overview

GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3700, showing relative resilience compared to EUR/USD despite renewed Dollar strength. The pair appears to be digesting last week’s pullback from multi-year highs rather than entering a fresh leg lower.

With the Bank of England pricing fewer cuts than the Federal Reserve, Sterling retains structural support even as short-term momentum remains cautious.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic recovering from oversold
• Price below the 20-period EMA
• Stabilization phase underway

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3780 | 1.3869
• Support: 1.3591 | 1.3494

Fremora Takeaway

GBP/USD shows early signs of stabilization, but bulls need a reclaim of 1.3780 to confirm the correction is complete. Below 1.3590, downside risks reopen toward 1.3490.