S&P 500 — Risk Appetite Returns
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 breaks above 7,000
- Strong ISM data reassures growth outlook
- Commodity crash fails to trigger contagion
- Tech valuations remain a swing factor
Market Overview
US equities extended their rebound, with the S&P 500 reclaiming and holding above the 7,000 psychological level. The move signals that investors view Friday’s precious metals collapse as a localized event rather than a systemic shock.
Stronger-than-expected manufacturing data reinforced confidence in earnings resilience, even as questions persist around AI spending and mega-cap valuations.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic overbought
- Price trending above the 20-period EMA
- Bullish momentum intact with consolidation risk
Key Levels
- Resistance: 7,071.90 | 7,118.09
- Support: 6,931.88 | 6,884.24
Fremora Takeaway
Momentum favors bulls above 7,000, but overbought conditions suggest consolidation is likely. As long as price holds above 6,930, pullbacks remain corrective.
WTI Crude Oil — Risk Premium Unwinds
Key Highlights
- Oil plunges nearly 5% on diplomacy hopes
- Iran risk premium repriced lower
- Dollar strength pressures commodities
- OPEC+ keeps output unchanged
Market Overview
WTI crude is consolidating near 61.60 after Monday’s sharp selloff, driven by easing fears of imminent conflict with Iran. Diplomatic signals quickly erased January’s geopolitical premium, triggering aggressive liquidation across the oil complex.
While downside momentum has slowed, the broader trend remains under pressure amid rising supply and weaker demand expectations.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic attempting bullish crossover from oversold
- Price below the 20-period EMA
- Bearish structure, early stabilization signs
Key Levels
- Resistance: 62.65 | 64.23
- Support: 60.38 | 58.90
Fremora Takeaway
WTI is stabilizing, not reversing. As long as price remains below 62.65, rallies are corrective. A break under 60.38 would expose deeper downside toward 58.90.