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EUR/USD — ECB Disappoints Bulls

Key Highlights

• ECB holds rates with neutral guidance
• Euro slips after lack of hawkish signals
• Dollar strength persists despite weak US jobs data
• Payrolls loom as major risk event

Market Overview

EUR/USD continues to grind lower following the ECB’s policy decision, with the pair slipping toward the 1.1788 region as markets digest a lack of supportive signals from Frankfurt. While the ECB left rates unchanged as expected, its assessment that policy is in a “good place” offered little reassurance to Euro bulls hoping for firmer language after recent inflation resilience.

Attention has shifted rapidly back to the US Dollar, which remains bid despite a growing list of troubling labor market indicators. Rising jobless claims, collapsing job openings, and a surge in announced layoffs would normally undermine the Greenback. Instead, the Dollar has strengthened, suggesting positioning, risk aversion, and anticipation of Friday’s official payrolls are dominating short-term flows.

The Euro now trades largely as a bystander, pressured by neutral ECB guidance and broader Dollar demand rather than Eurozone-specific deterioration.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifting near oversold territory
• Price holding below the 20-period EMA
• Downside momentum remains intact

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1870 | 1.1940
• Support: 1.1741 | 1.1669

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD remains technically weak, but momentum is becoming stretched. Payrolls are the catalyst that may finally resolve the contradiction between Dollar strength and deteriorating US labor data.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Haven Correlation Breaks

Key Highlights

• Gold accelerates lower below $4,900
• Dollar strength overwhelms weak data support
• Silver volatility damages sector confidence
• Focus turns to payrolls and geopolitics

Market Overview

Gold extends its decline toward the $4,818 area, marking another leg lower after failing to stabilize above the $5,000 psychological threshold. The move is notable given the backdrop of weakening US employment conditions, which would normally support bullion through lower rate expectations and safe-haven demand.

Instead, gold is being weighed down by aggressive Dollar strength and ongoing stress within the broader precious metals complex. Silver’s renewed collapse has shaken confidence across the sector, encouraging de-risking rather than selective haven allocation.

Equity market weakness has also failed to revive gold’s defensive appeal, highlighting a rare period where traditional correlations are not holding.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic pushing toward oversold
• Price accelerating below the 20-period EMA
• Bearish momentum strengthening

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5022.72 | 5228.53
• Support: 4593.05 | 4405.30

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is trading against its usual role. A pause or rebound likely requires Dollar weakness or renewed geopolitical escalation—both of which could be triggered by Friday’s events.

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GBP/USD — BoE Shift Resets Outlook

Key Highlights

• BoE opens door to easing later this year
• Sterling loses rate-differential support
• Dollar strength compounds downside pressure
• Oversold conditions developing

Market Overview

GBP/USD attempts to stabilize near 1.3551 following a sharp selloff sparked by the Bank of England’s dovish hold. While rates were left unchanged, Governor Bailey’s explicit acknowledgment of potential easing later in the year prompted a rapid repricing of Sterling’s interest-rate advantage.

This shift removes a key structural pillar that supported Cable’s rally to multi-year highs. At the same time, the Dollar’s unexpected strength—despite weak employment data—has intensified downside pressure, creating a challenging environment for Sterling.

While selling pressure has eased, the fundamental narrative has clearly deteriorated.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic deeply oversold
• Price remains below the 20-period EMA
• Bearish momentum stretched

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3650 | 1.3747
• Support: 1.3446 | 1.3342

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling may bounce technically, but its rate advantage is gone. Any recovery is likely corrective unless Dollar weakness becomes decisive.