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SPX/USD — Correction Accelerates

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 sinks deeper into negative territory
• Tech selloff broadens
• Labor data fuels recession concerns
• Payrolls seen as decisive catalyst

Market Overview

US equities extend their decline as the S&P 500 slides toward 6778, deepening losses for the year. Selling pressure remains concentrated in technology, but growing evidence of labor market deterioration is now amplifying broader recession fears.

Weak guidance from semiconductor firms, skepticism over massive AI capital spending, and renewed crypto weakness have eroded confidence in growth narratives. The shift from stable employment conditions toward rising layoffs marks a meaningful change in economic dynamics that markets are rapidly repricing.

Despite deeply oversold conditions, traders remain cautious about calling a bottom ahead of Friday’s employment data.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic deep in oversold territory
• Price firmly below the 20-period EMA
• Strong bearish momentum persists

Key Levels

• Resistance: 6832.26 | 6907.13
• Support: 6734.84 | 6666.95

Fremora Takeaway

Oversold conditions may invite a bounce, but fundamentals remain heavy. Payrolls will determine whether selling pressure pauses or intensifies.

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WTI Crude Oil — Premium Unwinds

Key Highlights

• Oil slips as US–Iran talks proceed
• Geopolitical risk premium trimmed
• Inventory draws offer limited support
• Diplomacy remains fragile

Market Overview

WTI crude drifts lower toward $63.45 as confirmation of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran continues to weigh on geopolitical risk pricing. Traders have been quick to strip escalation premiums, reversing much of the rally driven by earlier tensions.

Despite the decline, risks remain asymmetric. Any failure in negotiations could rapidly restore lost premium, while successful talks may only gradually pressure prices lower. Supply dynamics remain mixed, with falling inventories offset by demand uncertainty.

Oil remains headline-driven, with volatility elevated.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic approaching oversold
• Price below the 20-period EMA
• Bearish momentum moderating

Key Levels

• Resistance: 64.77 | 66.26
• Support: 62.17 | 60.86

Fremora Takeaway

Oil is trading diplomacy, not demand. As long as talks remain unresolved, volatility and sharp repricing will dominate price action.