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EUR/USD — Payrolls Cap Upside

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD softens after stronger US jobs headline
• Massive 2025 revisions keep conviction low
• Market now pivots to CPI for direction

Previous Session Overview

EUR/USD consolidated lower, holding inside prior ranges and trading near 1.1877.

Market Outlook

EUR/USD remains capped below the 1.1900 handle as the US Dollar stabilizes after stronger-than-expected January payrolls. The headline gain of 130,000 jobs beat expectations, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%, which normally supports a cleaner Dollar rally.

But this time, the “good news” is messy.

The annual benchmark revision (including the 898,000 downward adjustment to March 2025) and the weak underlying pace of 2025 job growth keep markets cautious. That’s why EUR/USD bounced from the post-data dip (1.1833 area) and returned to a more balanced zone instead of extending into a full breakdown.

With rate-cut expectations pushed out and CPI next on the calendar, EUR/USD is likely to trade technically until inflation clarifies whether the Fed can ease later this year or must stay restrictive longer.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic is holding in the middle zone
• Price is consolidating around the 20-period moving average
• Structure suggests equilibrium and range behavior

Key Levels to Watch

• Current Price: 1.1877
• Resistance: 1.1927 | 1.1997
• Support: 1.1833 | 1.1764

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD is balanced but vulnerable. A clean break below 1.1833 exposes 1.1764, while reclaiming 1.1927 would ease pressure and reopen upside toward 1.1997.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Holds Above Key Zone

Key Highlights

• Gold stays supported above $5,000 area despite NFP beat
• Revisions + macro uncertainty keep buyers present
• CPI remains the next volatility trigger

Previous Session Overview

Gold consolidated, staying within a wide range and trading near 5057.19.

Market Outlook

Gold continues to trade firm around the $5,000 zone, with price holding near 5057.19 despite employment data that typically pressures precious metals. The initial reaction after payrolls was a dip, but buyers returned quickly—another sign that the market is prioritizing structural drivers over a single headline.

Those drivers remain consistent:

• uncertainty around the true labor market trend due to major revisions,
• ongoing demand linked to long-horizon hedging (policy risk + currency debasement themes),
• and geopolitical noise that keeps safe-haven positioning alive.

That said, gold is not in “free rally mode.” After the recent surge, the metal now needs to respect nearby technical levels: if CPI surprises hotter, gold can easily pull back into support and force a deeper consolidation phase before attempting the next leg higher.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic is easing from the upper zone but not collapsing
• Price is holding slightly above the 20-period moving average
• Momentum is bullish, with consolidation risk

Key Levels to Watch

• Current Price: 5057.19
• Resistance: 5222.99 | 5389.99
• Support: 4899.10 | 4716.92

Fremora Takeaway

Gold remains constructive while above 4899.10. A break above 5222.99 strengthens continuation potential toward 5389.99, but CPI is the catalyst that decides whether we break out or retest support.

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GBP/USD — GDP is the Local Catalyst

Key Highlights

• Sterling stabilizes after recent BoE-driven repricing
• GDP is the next UK-specific trigger
• CPI can still swing USD and affect Cable

Previous Session Overview

GBP/USD consolidated, trading near 1.3632 after last week’s correction.

Market Outlook

Cable is trying to hold its footing around 1.3632, showing signs of stabilization after the BoE’s dovish tilt reshaped rate expectations. Even with the US jobs headline beating estimates, the Dollar’s strength has been moderated by the same revision story that affected EUR/USD, preventing a clean one-way move.

For GBP/USD, the next clean driver is domestic: UK growth data. If GDP beats expectations, it will challenge the aggressive easing narrative that weighed on the Pound. If growth disappoints, the path of least resistance likely turns lower again as the market re-prices BoE cuts with more confidence.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifting lower toward oversold
• Price hovering around the 20-period moving average
• Weakening momentum, but not a breakdown yet

Key Levels to Watch

• Current Price: 1.3632
• Resistance: 1.3744 | 1.3847
• Support: 1.3529 | 1.3423

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling needs to hold 1.3529 to avoid a deeper slide toward 1.3423. Upside recovery requires reclaiming 1.3744 first, with 1.3847 as the larger cap.