Markets faced significant pressure this week as the US government shutdown reached its 38th day—now the longest in American history—triggering a tech sell-off and reversing the Dollar’s recent gains. Consumer sentiment crashed to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, while October layoffs surged 183% to the worst reading since 2003.
Dollar Fails to Hold 100.00 Breakout
The US Dollar Index failed to sustain its move above the psychological 100.00 barrier and the critical 200-day moving average, retreating to modest weekly losses around 99.80. The DXY marked its fourth consecutive monthly decline, down nearly 10% since the tariff-driven peaks in February.
Fed rate cut expectations for December rose to 65% probability after October’s Challenger Job Cuts report showed 153,000 layoffs—the worst October in over two decades. The data drought caused by the ongoing shutdown leaves the Fed and traders without key economic indicators, with markets now pricing roughly 87 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.
Technical Structure: Resistance at 100.05 and 101.33, support at 98.26 and 97.05.
EUR/USD Rebounds from Three-Month Lows
EUR/USD bounced from three-month lows at 1.1468 to end the week around 1.1580, capitalizing on broad Dollar weakness. The pair remains capped by the bearish 20-day SMA at 1.1594 but found support from the rising 200-day SMA at 1.1342.
Eurozone data showed mixed signals, with Services PMI upwardly revised to 53.0, while Retail Sales disappointed at -0.1% MoM. ECB President Lagarde noted the bank has reached “a good place” on monetary policy, suggesting a pause in the easing cycle.
Technical Levels: Resistance at 1.1650 and 1.1759, support at 1.1472 and 1.1347.
GBP/USD Tests Critical 1.3000 Support
Cable plunged to seven-month lows near 1.3000 before staging a modest recovery to 1.3160 as Dollar weakness provided relief. The Bank of England’s dovish hold decision (5-4 vote split) reinforced expectations for gradual rate cuts ahead.
An impending Bear Cross on the daily chart (21-day SMA crossing below 200-day SMA) and RSI at 36 signal continued downside risks.
Key Levels: Resistance at 1.3318 and 1.3498, support at 1.2996 and 1.2813.
S&P 500: Tech Selloff Drives Largest Weekly Decline Since April
The S&P 500 closed 1.1% lower, heading for its largest weekly decline since April when tariffs were first announced. The tech-heavy selloff reflects growing concerns about AI valuations, particularly after Meta’s stock declined following announcements of massive capital expenses for data center buildouts.
The index broke below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April. Despite the pullback, November historically ranks as the second-strongest month for stocks, though current momentum suggests caution.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 6895.39 and 7046.27, support at 6605.15 and 6445.64.
Gold Stabilizes Near $4,000 Amid Mixed Signals
Gold fluctuated within a tight range around $4,000, caught between safe-haven demand from the shutdown and reduced Fed easing expectations. The RSI on the daily chart hovers slightly above 50, highlighting market indecisiveness.
Gold remains sandwiched between 20-day SMA resistance at $4,080 and 50-day SMA support at $3,880. With 65% probability of a December Fed rate cut, the metal faces two-way risk.
Key Levels: Resistance at 4129.41 and 4252.94, support at 3887.35 and 3762.15.
WTI Crude Pressured by Shutdown Concerns
WTI crude trades near $59, holding the mid-zone of its three-year downtrend channel amid risk-off sentiment from the prolonged government shutdown. The 38-day stalemate continues to weigh on economic sentiment heading into year-end.
Technical structure shows downside risk below $55 toward $49, while a sentiment turnaround could push prices toward $63-$66 resistance. Chinese CPI rising to +0.2% near yearly highs provides modest demand support.
Technical Levels: Resistance at 61.83 and 63.97, support at 57.97 and 55.84.
Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K
Bitcoin dropped over 8% for the week, briefly falling below $100K to $98,944—the lowest since late June. Long-term holders continued aggressive selling, with BTC supply aged 180-365 days declining by 319,626 BTC over the past month.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their highest single-day outflow since August ($577.74M on Tuesday), with total weekly outflows hitting $661.22M. Price now hovers near the critical 365-day MA support at $102,000.
Despite November historically being Bitcoin’s strongest month (averaging 41.92% gains), technical indicators warn of a deeper correction toward $72,000 if $100K breaks decisively.
Technical Analysis: Resistance at 108447.42 and 115879.84, support at 98987.99 and 91825.84.
Economic Data Drought Continues
With the government shutdown now at 38 days, key economic releases remain postponed indefinitely:
- Non-Farm Payrolls
- CPI and PPI
- Retail Sales
- GDP updates
The data vacuum forces the Federal Reserve to make policy decisions with limited visibility into real-time economic conditions. October’s Challenger Job Cuts showing 153,000 layoffs represents one of the few available data points, painting a concerning picture of labor market deterioration.
Consumer sentiment crashing to 50.3—the lowest since 2022—adds to concerns about economic resilience.
Week Ahead: Key Events (Nov 11-15)
Economic Releases:
- Monday: UK Nationwide House Prices
- Tuesday: UK Employment Data, BoE’s Huw Pill speaks
- Wednesday: Australia Q1 GDP, US ADP Employment (weekly release)
- Thursday: UK Q3 GDP (preliminary), Monthly GDP
- Friday: Germany Retail Sales, US delayed data pending shutdown resolution
Central Bank Watch:
- Fed officials enter blackout period ahead of potential December meeting
- Mixed Fed commentary continues: Goolsbee cautious, Cook sees December as “live”, Hammack hawkish on inflation
- Bank of England signaled gradual downward path for rates if disinflation continues
- ECB in wait-and-see mode after reaching “good place” on policy
Key Themes:
- Government shutdown resolution attempts by Senate Democrats
- Tech sector concerns about AI valuations and capital expenditures
- Trade developments: China lifting some tariffs on US agricultural goods
Market Outlook
With official US data releases on hold, market focus shifts to Fed commentary, UK employment and GDP figures, and private sector indicators. The technical breakdown in major indices and Bitcoin’s test of $100K support suggest mounting pressure on risk assets.
The 38-day government shutdown creates heightened uncertainty for asset allocation decisions heading into year-end. Historical November strength for equities and Bitcoin may be offset by deteriorating economic indicators and political dysfunction.
Technical Levels to Monitor:
- USDX: Support at 98.26 critical; break could accelerate decline to 97.05
- EUR/USD: Resistance at 1.1650 caps upside; support at 1.1472 holds for now
- GBP/USD: 1.3000 psychological level key for near-term direction
- Gold: Range-bound between $3,880-$4,080 until breakout
- S&P 500: 6,605 support critical; break signals deeper correction
- Bitcoin: $100K make-or-break level; failure targets $91,825
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