Gold climbs back toward the $4,070 region, snapping its three-day losing streak as risk-off flows and anticipation of delayed US data support the metal. However, hawkish Fed remarks may cap upside momentum.
Entry Zone: Buy dips toward $4,055 – $4,070
Stop Loss: Below $4,035
Targets: $4,145, then $4,225 on extended bullish traction
Catalyst Watch: FOMC Minutes, delayed NFP (September), risk sentiment, Fed tone
Trading Rationale
Gold gains modest traction as markets brace for a packed data schedule:
- A return to risk-off sentiment lifts safe-haven demand ahead of the long-delayed US September NFP release.
- Both the September and October NFP reports were delayed due to the 43-day US government shutdown, adding uncertainty to Fed decisions.
- September NFP is expected at +50,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.3%. A weaker print may pressure the USD and benefit gold.
- However, hawkish Fed comments — including Vice Chair Jefferson urging caution on rate cuts — limit aggressive upside.
- Several Fed officials (Bostic, Schmid) still highlight inflation risks, reinforcing a slower easing path.
Technically, XAU/USD has reclaimed short-term support and is attempting to break above its H4 moving average. A sustained move above $4,095 opens a run toward $4,144 resistance.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 4,069.30
Potential Resistance: 4,144.76 / 4,224.93
Potential Support: 3,998.94 / 3,922.47
DISCLAIMER & CTA
DISCLAIMER: Trading gold, forex, and CFDs involves substantial risk. All analysis here is educational only and not investment advice. Always manage your risk carefully.
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