📈 S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Tech Leads Rebound, But NFP Risks Remain
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 snaps four-day slide, gaining 0.38%
- Nvidia jumps 3% ahead of earnings; Alphabet hits new all-time highs
- NFP becomes the next decisive catalyst for market direction
Market Overview
The S&P 500 staged a modest recovery on Wednesday, rising 0.38% to close at 6,642. This rebound snapped the index’s longest losing streak since August, driven primarily by renewed optimism in the technology space.
Nvidia bounced 3% ahead of its highly anticipated earnings release, while Alphabet surged to a new all-time high as excitement around its Gemini 3 AI rollout lifted sentiment. Analysts remarked that Nvidia’s recent selloff could actually create a “healthier setup” for positive earnings to lift the market.
However, the broader narrative remains mixed. Investors continue questioning the long-term return on massive AI capital expenditures, with concerns growing over the timing of AI monetization. Several strategists warn that despite yesterday’s tech bounce, markets could still face an 8–9% correction if earnings or macro data disappoint.
The October Nonfarm Payrolls report — the first major dataset since the 43-day US government shutdown — is now the main event. A strong NFP print may reinforce the “no landing” scenario but could further suppress Fed rate-cut expectations. A weak (but not recessionary) reading may be the “Goldilocks” outcome markets hope for.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising toward overbought — improving momentum
- Price sitting near the 20-period MA — recovery still fragile
- 50-day MA at 6707 remains key overhead resistance
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6771.55 | 6610.29 |
| 6837.46 | 6537.38 |
Fremora Takeaway
SPX/USD has room to extend its recovery—but only if NFP cooperates.
A break above 6771 opens a path to 6837, though the 50-day MA remains a tough ceiling.
Support at 6610 must hold to preserve the rebound.
Tech optimism is helping for now, but markets need supportive macro data to regain stability.
🛢 WTI Crude Oil (USO/USD) — Rally Fades as Oversupply Reasserts Control
Key Highlights
- WTI drops back below $59 after four-day rally
- EIA inventory builds highlight severe supply-demand imbalance
- Medium-term outlook remains bearish despite geopolitical risks
Market Overview
WTI crude reversed sharply on Wednesday, falling back below $59.00 as oversupply concerns overshadowed geopolitical tensions. The decline follows a four-day rebound that briefly pushed prices above $60 — but the rally proved fragile.
The EIA’s latest inventory data likely revealed another large stock build, adding to last week’s massive 6.4 million-barrel increase. Storage hubs across the US, Europe, and Asia continue to swell, reinforcing the global glut narrative.
Oil’s failure to hold above the $60 mark highlights the dominance of bearish fundamentals. Even recent geopolitical risks — from US sanctions on Russian producers to Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure — have provided only temporary support, with disruptions proving short-lived.
Major energy agencies remain aligned in their forecasts:
- OPEC sees a surplus into 2026
- IEA projects rising supply growth
- EIA expects record US production
Together, they paint a structurally bearish outlook for crude through the mid-decade period.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic sliding toward oversold — selling pressure building
- Price below 20-period MA — bearish tone restored
- Failure at the 52-week MA (62.25) confirms strong overhead supply
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 59.96 | 58.74 |
| 60.61 | 58.14 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI remains vulnerable after breaking back below $59.
A move under 58.74 exposes 58.14, with downside momentum accelerating.
Upside recovery requires reclaiming 59.96 and then 60.61, but fundamentals heavily cap rallies.
Without meaningful supply cuts or demand surprises, oil likely gravitates toward the $57–58 support zone.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.