GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3090 in early European trading, but upside momentum remains limited as the pair continues to trade below the 100-day EMA. Weak UK data and rising expectations of a December BoE rate cut keep the pound under pressure.
Entry Zone: Sell on rallies toward 1.3095 – 1.3120
Stop Loss: Above 1.3155
Targets: 1.3050, then 1.3015 if bearish continuation resumes
Catalyst Watch: UK Retail Sales, UK PMI data, BoE rate-cut expectations, USD strength
Trading Rationale
GBP/USD shows mild intraday gains but remains structurally bearish:
- UK inflation, GDP, and industrial production data have weakened, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate cut in December.
- A Reuters poll suggests economists now expect additional rate cuts early next year as inflation continues cooling.
- The USD trades firmly near a multi-month high as traders scale back Fed cut bets following strong NFP data (119k vs expected 50k).
- RSI on the daily chart remains below 50, confirming weak upward momentum.
- The pair remains capped by its long-term EMA structure, limiting any sustained recovery.
Technically, GBP/USD faces heavy supply at 1.3110–1.3130. Failure to break above this zone exposes 1.3050 and 1.3010 supports.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.3081
Potential Resistance: 1.3112 / 1.3153
Potential Support: 1.3047 / 1.3011
DISCLAIMER & CTA
DISCLAIMER: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk. This analysis is educational only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly.
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