📊 EUR/USD — Stabilizing Above 1.1500 as Fed Dovish Shift Deepens
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD trades near 1.1521 after snapping its 6-day losing streak
- Fed December cut odds rebound to 65%+ after Williams’ dovish remarks
- DXY tests 100.00 support, pressured by mixed Treasury yields
- Germany’s final Q3 GDP and US Retail Sales/PPI in focus today
Market Overview
EUR/USD recovered modestly on Monday, lifting back toward 1.1550 after six straight days of selling pressure. The rebound was driven primarily by US Dollar weakness as traders aggressively repriced December Fed cut expectations following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.
This marks a significant shift from last week, when odds for a December rate cut dropped below 30%. FedWatch now shows probabilities back above 65%, undermining the Dollar’s recent bullish streak and allowing EUR/USD to stabilize above critical support.
The Dollar’s softness persisted even as US yields remained mixed, with the Dollar Index challenging the 100.00 handle — an important technical and psychological level. This move comes at a time when the US economy is clearing a backlog of delayed data due to the government shutdown, increasing volatility around macro releases.
Today’s US calendar is heavy:
- September Retail Sales
- PPI Producer Prices
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence
These data points will help shape expectations for the December FOMC meeting.
In Europe, Germany’s final Q3 GDP and ECB speeches (Cipollone, Donnery) will be closely watched. Europe’s slowing PMI data remains a drag on EUR sentiment, but policy divergence may begin favoring the Euro if the Fed confirms a dovish pivot.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic consolidating at mid-range — neutral momentum
- Price remains below the 20-period MA — bearish undertone
- Market stabilizing above 1.1500 but direction still data-dependent
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.1521
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1568 | 1.1473 |
| 1.1601 | 1.1444 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD is stabilizing but still fragile.
A break above 1.1568 unlocks momentum toward 1.1601, while a drop back below 1.1473 confirms renewed downside.
Today’s US Retail Sales + PPI data will likely set the tone — weak numbers support Euro upside, strong numbers revive USD strength.
📊 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Bullish Momentum Builds Above $4,100
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at $4,134 after reclaiming the $4,100 threshold
- Fed cut odds rebound above 65%, weakening the Dollar
- Strong Monday risk rally did not suppress gold demand
- Today’s US data releases are key short-term catalysts
Market Overview
Gold extended its rally on Monday, breaking above the $4,100 barrier as Fed rate-cut expectations shifted sharply back toward a dovish stance. With the Dollar weakening and real yields easing, gold reclaimed bullish momentum after last week’s consolidation.
Despite strong gains in equities — with the S&P 500 up 1.55% and Nasdaq up 2.69% — gold held firm, signaling persistent underlying safe-haven demand. AI stocks lifted broader sentiment, but analysts warn the rally is narrow and unsustainable if macro conditions deteriorate.
Gold remains closely tied to Fed expectations. With December cut odds back above 65%, the environment is turning increasingly supportive for bullion.
However, Tuesday’s US releases — Retail Sales, PPI, and Consumer Confidence — could trigger sharp moves depending on whether the data favor or challenge the dovish narrative.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic approaching overbought — strong bullish impulse
- Price trading well above 20-period MA — breakout confirmation
- Momentum favors continued upside toward next resistance zone
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 4134.62
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4189.83 | 4086.98 |
| 4240.44 | 4039.56 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold is in a clean bullish sequence as long as price stays above 4086.98.
Upside targets sit at 4189 and 4240, driven by Fed-cut expectations and weaker USD.
Only a break below 4086 risks deeper pullback toward 4039.
📊 GBP/USD — Consolidation Ahead of High-Risk UK Autumn Budget
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3104 after three days of steady gains
- Fed cut bets support GBP, but UK data remains weak
- Wednesday’s Autumn Budget is major event risk
- Market pricing: 85% chance of a December BoE cut
Market Overview
GBP/USD extended its recovery on Monday, rising toward 1.3120 in line with broad USD weakness. However, Sterling’s gains remain fragile due to underlying UK economic concerns — last week’s Retail Sales and PMI data signaled a clear slowdown.
The key risk this week is Wednesday’s UK Autumn Budget, which could generate outsized volatility:
- Tax-heavy Budget → pound falls (growth concerns + political risk)
- Tax-light Budget → gilt yields rise (fiscal credibility concerns)
- Balanced Budget → relief rally possible
Markets remain wary as rumors circulate about extending frozen tax thresholds — effectively a “stealth tax” on workers.
On the US side, major data releases today (Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Confidence) will directly influence USD positioning and GBP/USD’s short-term path.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic near overbought — rally may be stalling
- Price consolidating around the 20-period MA — equilibrium
- Breakout likely once UK Budget is released
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.3104
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3145 | 1.3067 |
| 1.3174 | 1.3038 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD is holding steady but vulnerable.
A push above 1.3145 opens the path toward 1.3174, but downside resumes on a drop below 1.3067.
Wednesday’s Autumn Budget will determine whether this is consolidation or a topping pattern.
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Disclaimer
This report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.