GBP/USD trades quietly around 1.3100 as momentum slows heading into a US holiday-shortened week. With US markets closed for Thanksgiving and closing early on Friday, liquidity is thin and price action remains muted.
Entry Zone: Sell rallies into 1.3115 – 1.3140
Stop Loss: Above 1.3170
Targets: 1.3070, then 1.3040 if bearish pressure returns
Catalyst Watch: US PPI data, Fed rate-cut expectations, UK consumer data, holiday-reduced liquidity
Trading Rationale
GBP/USD steadies but lacks conviction:
- Markets price in nearly 80% odds of a December Fed rate cut, but uncertainty remains due to delayed US labor data.
- October and November NFP reports will only be released after the December Fed meeting due to the government shutdown — leaving policymakers without full data clarity.
- UK outlook remains fragile with weak GDP, CPI softening, and slowing industrial data supporting expectations of multiple BoE cuts in the coming months.
- PPI inflation due Tuesday may attract attention, but it excludes imported goods — limiting its policy impact.
- Thin liquidity this week could amplify sudden spikes, but the broader structure remains capped below the 1.3150 zone.
Technically, GBP/USD is still trading under the H4 moving average, with sellers likely defending 1.3140–1.3170.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.3101
Potential Resistance: 1.3140 / 1.3168
Potential Support: 1.3065 / 1.3037
DISCLAIMER
Trading forex and CFDs carries high risk. This material is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly.
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