USD/CAD holds around 1.4110 after earlier gains, with the pair vulnerable to downside pressure as Fed cut expectations jump sharply. However, weak oil prices continue to limit CAD strength.
Entry Zone: Buy dips toward 1.4080 – 1.4095
Stop Loss: Below 1.4040
Targets: 1.4185, then 1.4260 if bullish momentum resumes
Catalyst Watch: Fed commentary, Oil price movement, US retail & PPI data, Canadian energy sensitivity
Trading Rationale
USD/CAD stays firm but faces mixed forces:
- Fed cut odds jump to 81% for December, pushed higher by dovish comments from Waller and Williams.
- Waller notes inflation is “not a big problem” anymore, expressing concern about the weakening labor market and supporting near-term easing.
- Oil trades lower near $58.70 — weakening CAD and limiting downside in USD/CAD.
- Geopolitical tension softening (US push for Ukraine-Russia peace plan) also weighs on crude prices.
- API crude stock data later today may influence CAD volatility.
Despite rising cut expectations, USD/CAD maintains bullish structure above its moving average. A breakout above 1.4185 would expose 1.4262.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.4119
Potential Resistance: 1.4186 / 1.4262
Potential Support: 1.4041 / 1.3970
DISCLAIMER
Trading forex and CFDs involves substantial risk. This analysis is for education only. Manage your exposure responsibly.
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