📊 EUR/USD — Dollar Breakdown Fuels Rally Toward 1.1600
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD trades at 1.1565, extending Tuesday’s breakout
- Fed cut odds surge to 83%, driving USD to multi-day lows
- DXY breaks below 100.00, a major psychological failure
- Expectations build ahead of Beige Book + US Jobless Claims
Market Overview
EUR/USD surged higher on Tuesday as the Dollar suffered one of its sharpest repricings of the quarter. The pair reclaimed the upper band of its recent range and now targets the 1.1600–1.1650 zone after the US Dollar Index collapsed below the key 100.00 support.
The trigger: soft US Retail Sales and PPI, further weakening confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Combined with New York Fed President John Williams’ dovish tone, markets aggressively shifted—pricing 83% probability of a December Fed cut, up from 40% last Friday.
Sentiment weakened further after reports that Kevin Hassett may be the White House’s frontrunner for the next Fed chair — a figure widely viewed as dovish and aligned with Trump’s preference for low rates. Treasury Secretary Bessent fueled momentum, signaling a decision “before Christmas.”
With the Fed turning sharply dovish while the ECB maintains steady guidance, divergence is expanding in EUR/USD’s favor.
Ahead today: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, and the Fed Beige Book, which could confirm the slowing narrative.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic turning lower inside overbought → near-term consolidation risk
- Price holding above 20-period MA → bullish structure intact
- Breakout continuation signaled while above 1.1526 support
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.1565
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1606 | 1.1526 |
| 1.1648 | 1.1492 |
Fremora Takeaway
The bullish engine is alive — Fed dovishness + DXY breakdown = strong EUR/USD upside bias.
A clean break above 1.1606 opens 1.1648, while holding above 1.1526 keeps bulls in control.
Only a Beige Book surprise or strong US data would interrupt the upward trajectory.
📊 GOLD (XAU/USD) — DXY Collapse Ignites Another Surge Above $4,100
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at $4,132, consolidating after touching $4,160
- Fed cut odds at 83% + falling yields → powerful bullish setup
- DXY collapse below 100.00 boosts global Gold demand
- All eyes on US Jobless Claims + Beige Book
Market Overview
Gold extended its rally Tuesday, climbing to a fresh two-week high near $4,160 before easing slightly. The backdrop is exceptionally bullish:
- Fed cut probability: 83%
- Dollar Index breakdown: below 100.00
- Treasury yields falling across the curve
- Fed leadership uncertainty leaning dovish
The dovish pivot—accelerated by weak Retail Sales and PPI—has dramatically reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold. Meanwhile, USD weakness makes bullion cheaper for global buyers.
Reports that Kevin Hassett could lead the Fed added another layer of dovish expectations, boosting Gold’s long-term policy appeal.
Gold is now consolidating its gains, a healthy pause after a strong breakout. Today’s US data slate (Durable Goods, Claims, Chicago PMI, and especially Beige Book) will set the tone for the next directional push.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic pulling back from overbought → healthy consolidation
- Price well above 20-period MA → bull trend intact
- Dip-buying expected above 4081 support
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 4,132
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4,206.97 | 4,081.26 |
| 4,246.16 | 4,041.27 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold remains one of the strongest macro trades as long as the Fed narrative stays dovish and DXY stays below 100.
Above 4,132, bulls aim for 4,206 → 4,246.
Pullbacks toward 4,081 are likely to be bought aggressively.
Only surprisingly strong US data would challenge this trend.
📊 GBP/USD — All Eyes on the UK Autumn Budget
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3160 after touching above 1.3200 intraday
- Four-day rally fueled mainly by Dollar weakness
- Wednesday’s Autumn Budget = major Sterling event risk
- Fed cut odds at 83% keep USD depressed across the board
Market Overview
GBP/USD extended its advance for a fourth straight session, briefly reclaiming the 1.3200 handle before easing to 1.3160. The move has been driven overwhelmingly by USD weakness rather than UK strength.
The UK Autumn Budget today represents the biggest domestic catalyst of the week. Markets expect Chancellor Reeves to address the £20B fiscal gap—yet the path is narrow:
- Tax-heavy Budget → stabilizes gilts, risks political fallout
- Light Budget → markets may punish fiscal looseness → higher yields → GBP bearish
Sterling traders are nervous ahead of the announcement.
The Fed’s dovish turn, collapsing Dollar Index, and US data weakness continue to support GBP/USD in the near term. However, the Stochastic turning lower from the overbought zone signals momentum may be peaking just as the UK faces a binary event.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic turning lower inside overbought → rally exhaustion risk
- Price above 20-period MA → bull structure confirmed
- Budget outcome will dictate short-term breakout or reversal
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.3160
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3215 | 1.3089 |
| 1.3271 | 1.3038 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD looks strong structurally, but event risk is massive.
A Budget welcomed by markets can break 1.3215 → 1.3271.
A disappointing Budget could unwind the entire rally toward 1.3089 → 1.3038.
Risk-management is essential today — volatility will spike.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is NOT investment advice.