📊 S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Intraday Reversal Confirms Bullish Momentum Above 6,750
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 closes at 6,765.88, up 0.91% after recovering from early losses
- Fed cut odds surge to 83%, powering a broad late-session rebound
- Alphabet hits new highs; Nvidia slides as AI-chip competition concerns grow
- Beige Book, Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods expected to drive volatility today
Market Overview
The S&P 500 extended its rebound Tuesday, rising 0.91% to 6,765.88 despite a sharp early-session pullback. The recovery was fueled almost entirely by the aggressive repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, with markets now pricing an 83% probability of a December rate cut — one of the fastest shifts in recent years.
Nvidia’s decline (-2%) created drag early in the session as investors reacted to reports of rising competition in the AI-chip ecosystem. But the rally was rescued by Alphabet, which closed +1.5% and hit new record highs after reports that Meta is considering buying billions in Google AI chips. Broadcom and other semiconductor names followed through, helping stabilize sentiment.
“Before Friday we had 40% cut odds; now we have 80%. Markets are laser-focused on this,” said Ron Albahary of LNW, capturing the essence of the week’s macro shift.
Adding to the dovish wave, Bloomberg revealed that Kevin Hassett — seen as pro–low rates — may be the White House favorite for the next Fed chair. A new leadership tone could dramatically influence 2026 policy guidance.
Despite the rebound, major indices remain negative for November as stretched AI valuations continue to attract scrutiny. Today’s packed macro slate — Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, and especially the Fed Beige Book — will shape whether the index extends toward cycle highs or consolidates.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic deep in overbought → extension risk high
- Price above 20-period MA → bull structure confirmed
- Bulls need a breakout above 6829 to sustain momentum
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 6774.99
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6829.53 | 6725.01 |
| 6885.13 | 6669.03 |
Fremora Takeaway
SPX/USD remains strong but overextended.
A break above 6829 confirms bullish continuation toward 6885, while failure to hold 6725 suggests a deeper pullback toward 6669.
Today’s Beige Book will be the key catalyst — a dovish economic tone could ignite the next leg higher.
📊 WTI Crude Oil (USO/USD) — Oversupply Concerns Keep Oil Heavy Despite USD Weakness
Key Highlights
- WTI trades at $58.01 after slipping below $57 before recovering
- Market sentiment fragile amid oversupply and peace-talk progress
- Dollar weakness fails to lift crude — disconnect signals demand concerns
- API inventory data today will define the next move
Market Overview
WTI crude experienced another volatile session Tuesday, dropping toward $57 before recovering to $58.01, reflecting the continued battle between oversupply concerns and short-covering interest.
Despite a sharply weaker Dollar and improving risk sentiment in equities, crude remains pinned by structural bearish factors:
- US production near record highs (13.83M bpd)
- Saudi exports above 7.2M bpd
- Oversupply projections into 2026
- Weak global demand signals, especially from China
Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations continue to erode geopolitical risk premium, removing one of the key supports that kept crude above $60 earlier this year. Traders are cautious — a confirmed ceasefire would likely push WTI toward $55–$56, while a breakdown in talks could briefly lift prices.
The disconnect between oil and equities is notable: while the S&P is benefiting from Fed dovishness, oil isn’t — suggesting markets expect weak economic growth, not strong future demand.
Today’s API inventory report becomes crucial.
Another build would reinforce oversupply fears.
A meaningful draw could spark a technical rebound toward $59–$60.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic attempting to cross higher → early recovery signs
- Price approaching 20-period MA → key barrier for trend reversal
- Below the MA, rallies remain vulnerable
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 58.01
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 58.94 | 57.18 |
| 59.77 | 56.38 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI remains in a fragile state.
A break above 58.94 opens the path toward 59.77, but failure to reclaim the 20MA risks a slide back to 57.18 → 56.38.
Given oversupply and Russia–Ukraine peace progress, crude remains a sell-on-rallies market unless API data triggers a sharp upside surprise.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.