EUR/USD climbs for a third straight session, approaching 1.1600 as softer US economic data boosts expectations of a December Fed cut. The Dollar retreats sharply as markets price in more than 84% odds of policy easing next month.
Entry Zone: Buy dips into 1.1565 – 1.1578
Stop Loss: Below 1.1540
Targets: 1.1615, then 1.1640 on extended momentum
Catalyst Watch: US Retail Sales softness, Consumer Confidence slump, ECB policy outlook, Fed cut pricing
Trading Rationale
USD weakness drives EUR/USD higher as markets digest disappointing US figures:
- Retail Sales slowed to 0.2% MoM, signaling cautious spending and cooling demand.
- Consumer Confidence plunged from 95.5 to 88.7, highlighting weakening sentiment.
- Core PPI eased to 2.6%, supporting the case for a December rate cut (84% probability).
- The euro finds additional support from expectations that the ECB will hold rates steady throughout 2026, providing stability for EUR demand.
Technically, EUR/USD has broken above its short-term moving average and is retesting the 1.1600 region. Momentum remains bullish while price holds above 1.1555.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.1591
Resistance Levels: 1.1616 / 1.1641
Support Levels: 1.1565 / 1.1540
DISCLAIMER
DISCLAIMER: FX and CFD trading carries substantial risk. This report is for educational purposes only. Always manage your exposure carefully.