📊 EUR/USD — Break Above 1.1600 Holds, Liquidity Thins into Thanksgiving
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD trades at 1.1601, holding above the key psychological barrier
- Fed cut odds remain above 80%, anchoring Dollar weakness
- DXY drops to 99.60, despite firmer US data and yield rebound
- Thanksgiving holiday → ultra-thin liquidity + range-bound price action likely
Market Overview
EUR/USD extended its climb on Wednesday, retesting the 1.1600 barrier and locking in a four-day USD decline even as US Treasury yields rebounded and US economic data came in firmer-than-expected. Dollar weakness has become entirely sentiment-driven, with markets showing unwavering conviction that the Fed will deliver a December rate cut.
Despite improving US data, traders remain anchored to:
- Dovish comments from Fed’s Williams
- 80%+ odds of a December cut
- Growing speculation that Kevin Hassett (dovish) may become the next Fed Chair
With US markets closed today for Thanksgiving, liquidity across all USD pairs will be extremely thin. Historically, this environment produces:
- Narrower ranges
- Potentially exaggerated moves on small orders
- Lower conviction price action
Europe takes the spotlight today with Germany GfK Consumer Confidence, eurozone confidence data, M3 money supply, and the ECB Meeting Accounts. Four ECB speakers are also scheduled — and in low liquidity conditions, their comments could move the Euro disproportionately.
Momentum remains bullish, but overextended. The Stochastic nearing overbought territory suggests limited upside until full liquidity returns Monday.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising into overbought → momentum stretched
- Price above 20-period MA → bull trend intact
- Likely consolidation around 1.1600 during holiday hours
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.1601
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1651 | 1.1551 |
| 1.1710 | 1.1491 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD remains firmly bullish above 1.1600, but Thanksgiving liquidity collapse favors sideways consolidation.
A break above 1.1651 likely waits until tomorrow’s short session or Monday.
As long as price holds above 1.1551, buyers remain in full control.
📊 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Break Toward $4,170 Holds as Fed Cut Odds Stay Elevated
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at $4,166, near eight-day highs
- DXY continues sliding toward 99.60, boosting bullion
- Treasury yield bounce fails to cap Gold — strong macro bid remains
- Holiday-thinned liquidity favors consolidation around $4,150–4,180
Market Overview
Gold extended its rally Wednesday, briefly touching $4,170 before consolidating as traders increasingly lean into the Fed’s dovish trajectory. Despite US yields rising earlier in the session — which normally pressures Gold — investors continued prioritizing the Fed-driven macro backdrop and collapsing Dollar Index.
Why Gold remains supported:
- December cut probability above 80%
- Dollar Index at multi-day lows below 100
- Potential for a dovish Fed Chair appointment
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainty (Russia–Ukraine talks not yet resolved)
With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, Gold liquidity drops significantly. Historically, this environment produces quiet sessions with occasional exaggerated spikes if unexpected headlines occur.
Europe dominates today’s catalyst list:
ECB Accounts + multiple ECB speakers + GfK data + inflation expectations
→ all capable of altering Dollar sentiment indirectly.
Gold remains strongly bid above its 20-period moving average, but Stochastic drifting into overbought territory points toward a healthy pause rather than weakness.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising → momentum intact but stretched
- Price well above 20-period MA → short-term bullish bias
- Potential for sideways drift in the 4113–4226 zone
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 4,166.19
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4,226.31 | 4,113.51 |
| 4,272.64 | 4,066.08 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold continues to strengthen as macro tailwinds align: Fed dovishness, Dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty.
With liquidity thin, expect range-bound consolidation before any attempt to break 4,226.
Pullbacks toward 4,113 are likely to attract buyers.
📊 GBP/USD — Sterling Extends to 4-Week Highs After Market-Friendly UK Budget
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3244, its highest level in four weeks
- Sterling boosted by positive reception of Chancellor Reeves’ Budget
- Fed cut expectations (80%+) amplify GBP gains through USD weakness
- Holiday-thinned markets → consolidation likely near 1.3200–1.3300
Market Overview
GBP/USD posted its fifth straight day of gains, building on strong momentum that began after the USD started its multiday collapse. The Autumn Budget — previously a major source of anxiety — landed smoothly, avoiding the gilt shock or Sterling selloff markets feared.
This “Budget relief rally” combines with:
- Weakening Dollar
- Surging Fed cut expectations
- Stabilizing UK fiscal sentiment
Thursday’s US holiday means liquidity drops sharply. Historically, GBP/USD becomes quieter on Thanksgiving, drifting into tight consolidation unless major UK or ECB headlines break.
The technical picture shows GBP/USD decisively above its 20-period MA with Stochastic nearing overbought territory, suggesting momentum remains bullish but stretched.
The key test:
Can the pair hold above 1.3173 during today’s thin session?
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising → momentum strong but extended
- Price above 20-period MA → bullish bias
- 1.3200 now acting as support-turned-demand
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.3244
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3315 | 1.3173 |
| 1.3371 | 1.3122 |
Fremora Takeaway
Sterling continues to benefit from Budget relief + USD weakness.
While today likely brings consolidation, holding above 1.3173 keeps bullish continuation alive.
A break above 1.3315 sets up 1.3371 next — likely when full liquidity returns Monday.
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Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.