📊 S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Four-Day Rally Holds Into Holiday Pause
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 trades at 6,826, extending its fourth straight day of gains
- Fed cut odds remain above 80%, fueling year-end rally expectations
- AI sector leadership broadens: Oracle +4%, Nvidia +1%, Alphabet continues setting records
- Thanksgiving closure → zero liquidity today, with shortened Friday session ahead
Market Overview
US equities posted another green session Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.69% into the Thanksgiving holiday. This marks the index’s fourth consecutive daily gain, putting major averages on track for their best week since late June.
Drivers of the move include:
- Strong seasonal flows (Thanksgiving week historically bullish)
- Fed cut probability surging above 80%
- Renewed confidence in the AI sector outside Nvidia
- Efficient positioning ahead of year-end
AI leadership rotation continued:
- Oracle jumped 4% after bullish brokerage commentary
- Nvidia recovered more than 1%
- Alphabet extended Tuesday’s breakout on news Meta may adopt Google TPU chips
The Dollar decline, Treasury yields stabilizing, and stronger corporate momentum all help sustain index performance into year-end.
Today’s full US market closure will pause equity flows entirely. Friday’s session will operate only until 1 p.m. ET, typically with very light volume and narrow ranges. This week’s rally is therefore unlikely to see much follow-through until liquidity returns Monday.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic deep in overbought zone → momentum strong but stretched
- Price holding firmly above 20-period MA → bull trend intact
- Likely sideways drift today due to holiday closure
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 6,826.14
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6,877.24 | 6,775.81 |
| 6,924.68 | 6,725.10 |
Fremora Takeaway
The S&P 500 maintains bullish control heading into the holiday break.
Overbought conditions + zero liquidity today = sideways consolidation.
A clean break above 6,877 opens the door to 6,925, but this likely waits for Monday’s full session.
📊 WTI CRUDE OIL (USO/USD) — Recovers Above $58 Despite Surprise Inventory Build
Key Highlights
- WTI trades at $58.39, rebounding from Tuesday’s dip toward $57
- API reports unexpected crude inventory build — normally bearish
- Despite this, WTI rallies due to short-covering + holiday conditions
- Oversupply and high US output keep medium-term bias bearish
Market Overview
WTI crude oil recovered on Wednesday, reclaiming $58.00 despite a bearish API report showing a surprise crude inventory build. Under normal circumstances this would weigh heavily on prices — but holiday-thinned liquidity, short-covering flows, and reduced market participation allowed WTI to bounce.
Core bearish fundamentals remain intact:
- US production steady near 13.83 million bpd
- Saudi Arabia maintaining elevated exports > 7.2 million bpd
- Persistent global supply buildup
- Weak Chinese and European demand expectations
- Russia–Ukraine peace talks slowly eroding the geopolitical risk premium
Thursday’s full US closure halts crude trading flows temporarily. Historically this results in:
- Muted price action
- Narrow ranges
- Occasional exaggerated spikes on unexpected headlines
Friday will offer only a half-day session (closing 1 p.m. ET), meaning meaningful price discovery is unlikely until Monday’s regular trading hours resume.
Despite Wednesday’s rebound, WTI remains locked below major breakdown levels and continues to trade within a broader medium-term downtrend. Structural oversupply continues to overwhelm any short-term bullish factors.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising toward overbought → short-term momentum improving
- Price above 20-period MA → technical bounce confirmed
- Sustainability questionable due to bearish macro structure
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 58.39
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 59.20 | 57.79 |
| 59.94 | 57.05 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI’s recovery above $58 is driven by technical short-covering, not fundamentals.
Holiday-thinned liquidity favors range-bound consolidation between 57.79–59.20.
Medium-term bias stays bearish as long as WTI remains below $60 and oversupply persists.
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Disclaimer
This material is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.