📊 EUR/USD — Consolidation at 1.1600 Ahead of German CPI
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD trades at 1.1585, consolidating after a 3-day climb
- Dollar Index stays weak near 99.40 during Thanksgiving closure
- Markets still price 80%+ odds of a December Fed rate cut
- Today’s German CPI is the main driver for directional break
Market Overview
EUR/USD hovered quietly around 1.1600 on Thursday as the US holiday froze volatility. With US markets closed and liquidity at minimal levels, traders simply paused after a strong Euro recovery from 1.1460 → 1.1600.
Friday brings a shortened US session (closes 1 p.m. ET) — still thin, still prone to exaggerated swings.
Today’s key catalyst:
🇩🇪 Germany Flash Inflation (CPI)
- Hot CPI → Less ECB easing → EUR bullish
- Soft CPI → More ECB easing → EUR bearish
Also:
- Germany Retail Sales
- ECB Inflation Expectations
- ECB’s Montagner speech
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic neutral → healthy consolidation
- Price above 20-MA → bullish bias intact
- Momentum paused, not reversed
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 1.1585
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1651 | 1.1551 |
| 1.1710 | 1.1491 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD holds its bullish structure.
A strong German CPI could lift the pair toward 1.1651, while weak data may pressure it back toward 1.1551 in the thin holiday market.
📊 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Holding Firm Above $4,150 Despite Holiday Pause
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at $4,189, just below multi-week highs
- Fed cut odds above 80% continue to support bullish bias
- Dollar Index remains weak under 100.00
- Thin liquidity prevents large moves — for now
Market Overview
Gold remained extremely steady on Thursday, fluctuating in a tight range above $4,150 as the US holiday kept volumes low. Despite the pause, momentum remains definitively bullish thanks to:
- Dollar weakness
- Dovish Fed expectations
- Safe-haven flows
- Portfolio hedge demand amid AI uncertainty
Friday may see more movement than Thursday, but still under holiday conditions — meaning small triggers can produce big moves.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic neutral → room for upside
- Price firmly above 20-MA → bullish continuation
- Consolidation healthy after strong rally
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 4189.61
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4226.31 | 4113.51 |
| 4272.64 | 4066.08 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold’s structure remains strong.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $4,113, dips are likely to be absorbed.
Upside remains open toward $4,226 → $4,272 when liquidity returns next week.
📊 GBP/USD — Rally Pauses After 5-Day Surge, Liquidity Limits Breakout
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3233, slightly below Thursday’s high
- Five-day rally from 1.3038 → 1.3270 pauses on thin liquidity
- UK Housing Prices today = primary domestic catalyst
- Dollar weakness still driving most of the upside
Market Overview
GBP/USD met resistance near 1.3270 on Thursday as holiday trading froze the market. The pair’s strong 5-day rally was driven mainly by Dollar weakness plus positive market reception of Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn Budget.
Friday brings limited UK data:
🏠 Nationwide Housing Prices
Strong → supports Sterling
Weak → reinforces BoE cut expectations
Meanwhile, markets continue pricing an 85% chance of a December BoE rate cut — limiting aggressive Sterling upside.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic cooling → no longer overbought
- Price above 20-MA → bullish structure intact
- Consolidation after a 200-pip rally = normal
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 1.3233
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3315 | 1.3173 |
| 1.3371 | 1.3122 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as it holds above 1.3173.
Thin liquidity may keep the pair range-bound between 1.3173–1.3315, unless UK housing data delivers a surprise.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.