📈 SPX/USD (S&P 500) — Momentum Pauses but Weekly Gains Remain Strong
Key Highlights
- SPX/USD trades at 6831.24, consolidating after a strong 4-day rally
- Index still on track for best week since June, +3%
- Nasdaq set to break 7-month winning streak despite bounce
- Liquidity extremely thin due to Thanksgiving + early close today
Market Overview
The S&P 500 held steady around 6830 on Thursday as markets paused for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Despite the quiet session, the index is still finishing one of its best weeks in months, recovering sharply from early-November tech-driven losses.
Market drivers remain consistent:
✔ 80%+ probability of a December Fed rate cut
✔ Seasonal strength — Thanksgiving week + Nov–Apr cycle
✔ AI sector stabilizing after weeks of valuation concerns
✔ Alphabet + Oracle continue to provide leadership
But even with this strong week:
- Nasdaq remains down ~2% in November
- Concerns about narrow leadership persist
- Nvidia’s inconsistency continues to limit confidence
Today’s session closes early at 1 p.m. ET, meaning:
- Low volume
- Potential for sudden spikes
- Most large players remain sidelined
Major attention now shifts to next week’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec 1) — a potential market mover.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic cooling from overbought → healthy reset
- Price above 20-MA → bullish structure remains
- Four-day rally losing speed but not reversing
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 6831.24
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6877.24 | 6775.81 |
| 6924.68 | 6725.10 |
Fremora Takeaway
Momentum remains bullish, but Thursday’s pause was expected.
SPX needs a clean break above 6877 to keep the weekly breakout intact.
A drop below 6775 would signal end-of-month profit-taking.
Expect tight ranges today due to the holiday and early close.
🛢 WTI CRUDE OIL (USO/USD) — Oil Pushes Higher as Market Awaits OPEC+
Key Highlights
- WTI trades at 58.91, extending its 2-day rebound
- Market positioning ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting
- Overbought on H4 — upside vulnerable if OPEC+ disappoints
- Oversupply narrative still dominates medium-term outlook
Market Overview
WTI crude held gains near $59 on Thursday, continuing the rebound from last week’s drop to $57. The move higher was mainly driven by:
- Short-covering
- Positioning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting
- Thin Thanksgiving liquidity exaggerating price action
However — don’t mistake this for a fundamental recovery.
Core issues remain:
❗ US production near record highs (13.83m bpd)
❗ API inventory build earlier this week
❗ Saudi exports remain high (7.2m bpd)
❗ Russia-Ukraine peace progress reducing geopolitical premium
All of these remain bearish for oil long-term.
The Sunday OPEC+ decision is the main catalyst:
- Maintain output → neutral/bullish short term
- Increase output → bearish, likely sends WTI back toward $55
- Unexpected cuts → bullish surprise
Expect volatility during today’s short US session, especially into the weekend.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic deep in overbought → vulnerable
- Price above 20-MA → short-term momentum strong
- Rally appears corrective, not structural
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 58.91
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 59.95 | 57.79 |
| 60.72 | 57.05 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI looks firm near $59, but the rally is likely driven by positioning rather than genuine demand.
The real direction will come from Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.
Bias remains bearish medium-term unless:
- OPEC+ surprises with cuts,
- OR prices break above 60.72 with conviction.
Expect sharp moves on thin liquidity today.
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Disclaimer
This is educational analysis, not financial advice.