📊 EUR/USD — Holds 1.1600 as Traders Await ISM Manufacturing
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD consolidates at 1.1602 into the new month
- December Fed cut probability rises to 85%
- European data remains weak despite higher German inflation
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (US) becomes key catalyst today
Market Overview
EUR/USD ended November quietly, stuck near 1.1600 as both markets and volatility thinned out during the US holiday week. Despite the calm finish, the pair has staged a solid rebound from its November low at 1.1468, supported by a dramatic shift in expectations for a December Fed rate cut.
The FedWatch Tool now assigns 85% probability to a 25 bps cut, fueled by dovish commentary from Fed officials including Waller and Williams, both citing a fragile labor market and “room for adjustment.”
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone offers little independent support:
- Germany Q3 GDP: 0%
- IFO Business Climate: 88.1 (down)
- Retail Sales: -0.3%
- ECB: “Policy in a good place” (Lagarde)
The only bright spot was German HICP at 2.6% YoY, slightly higher than expected, though not enough to shift ECB policy odds meaningfully.
This week’s drivers:
- Today: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- EU HICP preliminary
- EU Producer Price Index
- Friday: US PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising toward overbought → emerging bullish momentum
- Price slightly above 20MA → steady bullish structure
- Market building energy for potential breakout
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 1.1602
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1651 | 1.1551 |
| 1.1710 | 1.1491 |
Fremora Takeaway
Momentum is constructive but not explosive.
A break above 1.1651 reopens 1.1710.
Weak US ISM → bullish EUR/USD
Strong US ISM → bearish pullback toward 1.1551.
Expect the 1.1600 battle to continue until US data provides direction.
📊 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Gold Extends Rally Toward $4,220 on Fed Cut Bets
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at $4,220, up 2%+ weekly
- Dovish Fed signals dominate market psychology
- US data mixed but not strong enough to shift rate-cut expectations
- PCE inflation on Friday is the week’s biggest event
Market Overview
Gold surged early last week and held gains into month-end, finishing near $4,220 after a Thanksgiving-thinned trading environment helped suppress volatility.
The rally is fundamentally driven:
✔ Fed officials openly signaling December cut
✔ Dollar Index under pressure
✔ Yields retreating
✔ Fragile US labor market
✔ Mixed economic releases failing to support the Dollar
Fed commentary hammered this home:
- Williams: “Room for adjustment”
- Miran: Would vote FOR December cut
- Waller: Data shows labor market is weakening
- Daly: Fed should not “wait too long” to cut
With the Fed now entering blackout mode before the December 9–10 meeting, data becomes the only driver.
This week:
- ISM Manufacturing (Mon)
- ISM Services (Wed)
- Challenger Job Cuts (Thu)
- PCE Inflation (Fri) — the most important
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising toward overbought → strong bullish push
- Price above 20MA → structure remains bullish
- Bulls have clear control above $4,157
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 4220.29
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4274.57 | 4157.05 |
| 4341.25 | 4082.07 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold remains a buy-on-dips market.
A breakout above $4,274 sends momentum toward $4,341.
Only a strong US PCE number would slow this rally.
📊 GBP/USD — Pound Holds 1.3240 After Budget Relief & Fed Dovishness
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3241, holding last week’s gains
- Market approves UK Budget → removes fiscal fears
- Fed cut probability at 85% boosts risk appetite
- UK data remains mixed but not disastrous
Market Overview
GBP/USD made a clean breakout last week, climbing from 1.3030 → 1.3240+, supported by:
✔ A well-received UK Budget
✔ Broad USD weakness
✔ Surging Fed rate cut odds
✔ Improved sentiment across risk assets
Even though the OBR cut 2025 growth forecasts, markets praised the Budget for avoiding aggressive tax shocks and maintaining fiscal stability.
However, structurally:
- UK economic data remains soft
- Composite PMI 50.5
- Retail Sales -1.1%
- Growth expectations muted
This week’s drivers:
- ISM Manufacturing (Mon)
- ADP Employment (Wed)
- ISM Services (Wed)
- US Jobless Claims (Thu)
- PCE Inflation (Fri)
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising → strengthening momentum
- Price above 20MA → bullish structure
- Near-term consolidation likely before continuation
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 1.3241
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3315 | 1.3173 |
| 1.3371 | 1.3122 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD remains bullish but extended.
Expect consolidation between 1.3173–1.3315 before the next move.
Fed-BoE divergence (Fed dovish, BoE cautious) still favors GBP/USD upside.
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Educational content only — not investment advice.