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EUR/USD — Momentum Slows but Bias Remains Up

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD extends its 7-day winning streak, trading at 1.1626
• Dollar stabilizes slightly but remains weak ahead of major US data
• Markets price 89% probability of a December Fed rate cut

Market Overview

EUR/USD continues to grind higher, benefiting from durable USD weakness and firm rate-cut expectations heading into the December 10 FOMC meeting. The US Dollar managed a mild pause around the 99.40–99.50 zone on Tuesday, but not enough to reverse euro strength.

Eurozone inflation data reinforced the view that the ECB is done easing, with President Lagarde reiterating that policy is in a “good place.” Meanwhile, investors brace for a heavy US data slate:

• ADP Employment Change
• ISM Services PMI
• US Import/Export Prices

These releases will shape whether the Fed delivers the widely expected cut next week.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price holding above the 20-period MA
• Bullish pressure shows signs of near-term exhaustion

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1668 / 1.1710
• Support: 1.1582 / 1.1542

Fremora Takeaway

Bias stays bullish, but buyers look stretched.
A break above 1.1668 opens 1.1710.
Weak US data = upside continuation.
Stronger US data = pullback toward 1.1582.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Consolidation as Dollar Pauses

Key Highlights

• Gold trades at $4,209, easing from last week’s highs
• Dollar stabilization triggers mild corrective selling
• Markets still price 89% chance of Fed cut next week

Market Overview

Gold faced moderate profit-taking on Tuesday after failing to sustain gains above $4,220. With Treasury yields mixed and the Dollar halting its decline, gold entered a consolidation phase—but the underlying macro setup remains supportive.

Today’s US data releases (ADP, ISM Services) will directly influence gold’s short-term path. Lower-than-expected job creation or soft services data could quickly reignite bullish momentum.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic mid-range → momentum neutral
• Price consolidating around 20-period MA
• Structure remains bullish above $4,157

Key Levels

• Resistance: 4274.57 / 4341.25
• Support: 4157.05 / 4082.07

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is simply catching its breath after strong gains.
Above $4,200 keeps bulls in control.
Watch for renewed upside if US data disappoints.

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GBP/USD — Holding 1.3200 Despite Dollar Pause

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD trades at 1.3215, recovering from sub-1.3200 dip
• Fed–BoE policy divergence continues to support Sterling
• Market awaits UK Services PMI and major US data

Market Overview

Sterling briefly slipped below 1.3200, triggering stops before buyers stepped back in. The structure remains constructive, supported by the market’s assumption that:

• The Fed cuts next week,
• While the BoE stays more cautious due to sticky UK inflation.

Dollar stabilization muted upside momentum, but underlying demand remains intact.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic rising from oversold but mid-range
• Price consolidating around 20-period MA
• Short-term direction hinges on today’s US data

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3313 / 1.3371
• Support: 1.3152 / 1.3098

Fremora Takeaway

Holding 1.3200 keeps the bullish case alive.
A move above 1.3250 reopens upside toward 1.3313.
Break below 1.3152 = deeper corrective move.