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S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Index Approaches 7,000 as Fed Cut Bets Increase

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 trades at 6863.45, up 0.30%
• Weak ADP jobs data boosts rate-cut expectations
• Financial stocks lead gains; AI names mixed

Market Overview

US equities advanced on Wednesday as weak ADP jobs data strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut at next week’s meeting. The market continues to interpret bad news as good news, given the macro environment.

Financial stocks outperformed, while tech remained mixed. AI-related names saw divergence: Nvidia and Broadcom weakened, but Marvell surged 8% on strong data center demand. Retail stocks also saw impressive strength as early holiday spending surprised to the upside.

Today’s focus:

• US Jobless Claims
• Trade Balance
• Positioning ahead of Friday’s NFP

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price above 20-period MA
• Momentum improving but resistance nearby

Key Levels

• Resistance: 6927.72 / 7031.41
• Support: 6750.36 / 6653.03

Fremora Takeaway

Holding above 6800 keeps S&P 500 on track for a year-end rally.
A push through 6927 opens the door to 7031 and psychological 7000.

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USO/USD (WTI Crude Oil) — Rejected From $59–$60 Again

Key Highlights

• WTI settles at 58.83 after failing above $59
• Oversupply concerns quickly cap intraday rallies
• EIA inventory report becomes the next major catalyst

Market Overview

WTI crude oil attempted another rally on Wednesday but once again failed to sustain gains above the $59–$60 region. The rejection highlights the persistent dominance of oversupply concerns, while geopolitical noise offered only temporary support.

The macro backdrop remains heavily bearish:

• Non-OPEC supply projected to surge
• US inventories continue to build
• China’s demand softens
• Russian flows remain unstable

Dollar weakness helped soften the decline, but demand worries pressured crude lower.

Today’s key driver:

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories

Another large build = renewed selling.
A surprise draw = short-term bounce.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic turning lower from near-overbought
• Price fluctuating around the 20-period MA
• Failed rally suggests bearish continuation

Key Levels

• Resistance: 59.48 / 60.26
• Support: 58.29 / 57.60

Fremora Takeaway

WTI remains stuck in a bearish ceiling at $59–$60.
Break below 58.29 exposes 57.60, then $57.
Only an EIA drawdown offers temporary upside.