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S&P 500 — Market Pauses Ahead of PCE

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 trades at 6872.89, up slightly on the day
• Jobless claims hit their lowest level since 2022
• Markets fully expect a Fed cut next week

Market Overview

The S&P 500 posted modest gains Thursday as investors adopted a cautious tone ahead of today’s high-impact PCE inflation release. Despite mixed labor signals — job cuts rising while claims drop sharply — markets remain confident in next week’s rate cut.

Sector performance remains uneven:

• AI-related tech mixed, still correcting
• Financials firm on lower-rate expectations
• Retail strong as holiday spending accelerates

Treasury yields ticked higher, but risk appetite stayed healthy.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic easing from overbought but steady in mid-range
• Price consolidating above 20-period MA
• Structure supports continued uptrend unless 6776 breaks

Key Levels

• Resistance: 6927.72 / 7031.41
• Support: 6776.96 / 6686.03

Fremora Takeaway

SPX remains in year-end rally mode.
A soft PCE → retest of 6927 and possible break toward 7000+.
A hot PCE → short-term volatility but structure remains intact above 6777.

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WTI Crude Oil — Oil Breaks $60 But Fails to Hold

Key Highlights

• WTI trades at $59.47 after failing above $60
• Geopolitics supported early gains before sellers returned
• Oversupply narrative continues to cap rallies

Market Overview

WTI crude climbed above $60 Thursday but failed to maintain the breakout as oversupply fears quickly resurfaced. Despite geopolitical tensions offering periodic support, the fundamental landscape remains heavy with rising non-OPEC production, ample US inventories, and softer Chinese demand.

Dollar weakness has provided a mild tailwind, but traders remain sellers near the $60–61 zone.

Today’s key drivers:

• US PCE data impact on USD
• Weekend geopolitical risk
• Supply headlines and demand revisions

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price holding above 20-period MA
• Momentum improving but upside limited near $60–61

Key Levels

• Resistance: 60.10 / 60.83
• Support: 58.85 / 58.17

Fremora Takeaway

WTI’s rally remains fragile.
Only a sustained break above 60.83 would flip momentum short-term.
Otherwise, $59–60 remains a sell zone unless geopolitics tightens supply.