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S&P 500 — Holding Range Before Powell

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 flat as investors await Fed
• Small-caps continue to outperform
• Treasury yields edge higher after strong jobs data
• Market expects 25-bps cut, but outlook matters more

Market Overview

The S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged at 6,849.37, reflecting a market unwilling to commit ahead of the Fed’s final 2025 decision. Futures pricing shows near-certainty of a rate cut, but asset managers are focused on the 2026 dot plot and Powell’s forward guidance.

Small caps outperformed again — typically beneficiaries of lower financing costs — while tech remained mixed amid concerns about the return on AI-related capital expenditure.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifts toward oversold
• Price holds just above the 20-period MA
• Setup suggests balance until Fed breaks the range

Key Levels

Resistance	Support
6966.21	6776.96
7033.91	6705.64

Fremora Takeaway

A dovish Fed → fast move toward 6966.
A hawkish Fed → retest 6776 likely.
Expect large intraday swings during Powell’s press conference.

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WTI Crude Oil — Pressured by Supply Conditions

Key Highlights

• WTI extends decline toward $58
• Oversupply concerns dominate sentiment
• Iraq’s production return adds downside weight
• Fed impact secondary to supply dynamics

Market Overview

WTI dropped to $58.24, extending the week’s slide as oversupply fears overshadow broader macro themes. The restart of Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field — adding 460k bpd — has reinforced expectations of supply abundance heading into 2026.

Geopolitical negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain unresolved but continue to pressure prices as markets anticipate scenarios that may increase Russian export capacity. Fed policy may influence USD flows, but fundamentals remain firmly bearish.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic deeply oversold
• Price firmly below the 20-period MA
• Momentum remains bearish, but rebound risk is rising

Key Levels

Resistance	Support
58.81	57.60
59.42	57.03

Fremora Takeaway

WTI looks stretched but not ready for a trend reversal.
Short-covering bounce possible → 58.81.
Bigger trend stays bearish unless price reclaims $60.