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EUR/USD — ECB, Fed Risk Keeps Pair Range-Bound

Key Highlights
• EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 ahead of ECB and US CPI
• USD stabilizes after recent selloff but lacks momentum
• EU HICP revised lower to 2.1% YoY
• Markets cautious ahead of triple central-bank risk

Market Overview
EUR/USD remains supported above 1.1700 as traders reduce exposure ahead of a heavy macro session. While the Dollar found some footing on cautious risk sentiment, downside pressure remains limited by expectations that Fed easing will resume in 2026. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady, keeping EUR moves largely USD-driven.

Technical Outlook (H4)
• Stochastic turning higher
• Price consolidating near the 20-period MA
• Structure remains constructive

Key Levels
Resistance: 1.1795; 1.1852
Support: 1.1685; 1.1623

Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode ahead of major catalysts. Holding above 1.1685 keeps bullish structure intact, while a break above 1.1795 would signal renewed upside momentum if US CPI softens.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Inflation Risk Keeps Gold Elevated

Key Highlights
• Gold trades above $4,330 ahead of US CPI
• Fed rhetoric mixed but labor data remains weak
• Safe-haven demand supported by policy uncertainty
• Markets price aggressive Fed easing beyond 2026

Market Overview
Gold remains bid near recent highs as investors hedge policy and inflation uncertainty. Despite hawkish Fed commentary, confidence in cooling inflation and a softening labor market keeps real yields contained, supporting bullion ahead of key US data.

Technical Outlook (H4)
• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price holding above 20-period MA
• Bullish momentum intact

Key Levels
Resistance: 4379.73; 4412.29
Support: 4301.65; 4268.49

Fremora Takeaway
Gold remains structurally bullish above $4,300. A soft CPI print could trigger a breakout toward record highs, while pullbacks remain corrective unless price slips below $4,268.

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GBP/USD — BoE Cut Fully Priced After Soft CPI

Key Highlights
• GBP pressured after UK CPI sharply undershoots
• BoE rate cut to 3.75% fully priced
• USD strength caps recovery attempts
• Volatility expected into BoE decision

Market Overview
Sterling remains under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation, which cemented expectations for a BoE rate cut. While losses have stabilized, upside remains limited until clarity emerges from the policy announcement and US inflation data.

Technical Outlook (H4)
• Stochastic recovering from oversold
• Price stabilizing near the 20-period MA
• Short-term consolidation phase

Key Levels
Resistance: 1.3437; 1.3489
Support: 1.3312; 1.3259

Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD is vulnerable to policy tone rather than the rate cut itself. Holding above 1.3312 keeps downside contained, while a less-dovish BoE could trigger a recovery toward 1.3440.