Summary Card
- U.S. markets are closed today (Thursday, Nov 27) for Thanksgiving — equities, bonds, and futures observe full-day holidays.
- FX and commodities remain open but operate under extremely thin liquidity, widening spreads and increasing flash-move risks.
- Economic data releases are paused, adding to the existing data blackout caused by the government shutdown delays.
- Traders are watching for post-holiday repositioning, especially ahead of tomorrow’s early-close session and next week’s heavy macro calendar.
Why Thanksgiving Matters for Markets This Year
Thanksgiving always brings slower trading — but 2025 is different.
Markets are entering the holiday with:
- Missing October jobs & inflation data
- A delayed September NFP still absorbing market attention
- Fed policymakers publicly divided going into December
- USD volatility already elevated this week
With the U.S. trading desk offline, global markets must navigate these themes without U.S. liquidity, amplifying risk.
What Traders Should Expect Today
1. Ultra-Thin Liquidity in FX and Gold
While markets remain open:
- Major USD pairs trade with reduced volume
- Algorithms dominate order flow
- Spreads widen during off-peak hours
- Sudden, unanchored price spikes are more likely
Pairs most at risk:
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD.
Gold often experiences holiday-driven “air pockets,” especially if any geopolitical headlines hit.
2. No U.S. Economic Releases
Thanksgiving pauses all data releases — adding to:
- The shutdown-related delays
- The absence of October employment data
- The market’s reliance on alternative indicators
This leaves traders with no fresh macro catalysts until Friday.
3. U.S. Bond Market Closed — Yields Frozen for the Day
Treasury yields will not update today.
This matters because:
- Yields have been the main driver of USD direction
- Fed minutes just highlighted internal divisions
- Markets are waiting for clarification from incoming data
With yields static today, FX traders must rely on global sentiment only.
4. Stock Futures Closed — No Early Signals
With U.S. indices paused:
- SPX, Nasdaq, Dow futures take a break
- No U.S. session directional cues
- Asia and Europe may experience quieter sessions but are vulnerable to out-of-nowhere spikes due to limited liquidity
Expect price drift, not trend.
Friday Preview (Important)
Tomorrow:
- Half-day session for U.S. equities
- Bond market closes early
- Liquidity remains extremely light
- Volatility tends to increase in the final 90 minutes before the early close
Historically, the Friday after Thanksgiving produces:
- Random intraday spikes
- Low-conviction moves
- Position-adjustments for month-end flows
What Traders Should Watch
- Unexpected geopolitical headlines → larger-than-normal reactions
- USD drift based on overseas flows
- Gold sensitivity to risk sentiment
- Thin-market stop hunts
- Gap risks into Monday
If you trade today, reduce size, widen stops, or simply observe.
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