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EUR/USD — Pullback Before PCE as Dollar Stabilizes

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD slips to 1.1651 after recent multi-month highs
• Dollar finds temporary support on strong jobless claims
• Markets still price 87% probability of a Fed cut next week

Market Overview

EUR/USD eased on Thursday after touching fresh two-month highs above 1.1680, as the US Dollar stabilized following weeks of relentless selling. The pullback appears technical, driven by profit-taking ahead of today’s critical US PCE inflation report — a key input for the December 10 FOMC decision.

The Greenback briefly printed new multi-week lows near 98.70 before rebounding after jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since September 2022, offering temporary USD support. Despite this, markets remain overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will cut rates next week.

Today brings heavy data:

• US PCE (core & headline)
• US Personal Income & Spending
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec prelim)
• German Factory Orders
• Eurozone Q3 GDP & Employment (final)

Given EUR/USD’s extended rally, today’s PCE data will likely set the tone into next week.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic trending toward oversold
• Price testing 20-period MA
• Setup consistent with a healthy pullback inside an uptrend

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1676 / 1.1712
• Support: 1.1606 / 1.1568

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD is cooling after a strong run, but bullish structure remains unless 1.1606 breaks.
A soft PCE print likely re-targets 1.1700+.
A hot PCE print sends EUR/USD deeper toward 1.1568.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Gold Holds Steady as Traders Await PCE

Key Highlights

• Gold trades near $4,200, steady around support
• PCE inflation report becomes the decisive catalyst
• Dollar stabilizes, but gold resilience indicates underlying demand

Market Overview

Gold held firm near the $4,200 zone on Thursday as opposing forces kept the metal range-bound. Strong equity markets weighed on safe-haven appetite, but ongoing Dollar weakness provided a counterbalance.

Markets remain laser-focused on today’s PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred metric. Despite Thursday’s temporary USD bounce, traders maintain an 87% probability of a Fed cut next week — supportive for gold.

Today’s catalysts:

• US PCE (high impact)
• US Jobless Claims follow-through
• Michigan Sentiment (Dec)

Gold’s ability to remain above $4,200 despite risk-on conditions reinforces the strength of underlying accumulation.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price consolidating at 20-period MA
• Setup suggests re-accumulation, with breakout potential

Key Levels

• Resistance: 4274.57 / 4341.25
• Support: 4157.05 / 4082.07

Fremora Takeaway

Gold holds a constructive tone.
A soft PCE reading → gold likely retests $4,274.
A hot reading → gold risks sliding toward $4,157 but remains structurally bullish above $4,200.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Above 1.33 Despite Pullback

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD trades around 1.3331 after testing 1.3370
• Profit-taking follows a strong multi-day surge
• Fed–BoE policy divergence continues to support GBP

Market Overview

GBP/USD slipped modestly on Thursday after Wednesday’s strong breakout above 1.3300, driven by profit-taking as the Dollar stabilized. The correction appears technical, with Sterling still supported by the widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoE.

The Dollar found footing on strong jobless claims data, but markets still expect a December 10 rate cut, keeping GBP supported.

Today’s key releases:

• UK Mortgage & House Price Data
• US PCE Inflation (major driver)
• US Consumer Sentiment

A soft PCE print would likely propel GBP/USD back toward 1.3366–1.3424.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic nearing oversold
• Price approaching 20-period MA
• Setup signals healthy consolidation

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3366 / 1.3424
• Support: 1.3266 / 1.3208

Fremora Takeaway

GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.3300.
Dip-buyers likely step in near 1.3266–1.3320, unless PCE surprises to the upside.