---

STOCKS (S&P 500) — Record Test Meets Resistance

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 briefly breaks above 7,000
• Fed’s hawkish hold pressures valuations
• Semiconductor demand continues to underpin AI optimism
• Earnings from mega-caps drive near-term sentiment

Market Overview

US equities pause after briefly breaking the 7,000 milestone as investors digest the Fed’s firmer stance and rising Treasury yields. While AI-driven demand and strong semiconductor fundamentals continue supporting long-term optimism, the inability to hold above record levels suggests short-term consolidation as markets reassess policy and earnings risk.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic retreating from overbought levels
• Price consolidating around the 20-period EMA
• Setup favors consolidation or a shallow pullback

Key Levels

• Resistance: 7012.02; 7053.16
• Support: 6934.59; 6896.04

Fremora Takeaway

The failure to sustain levels above 7,000 signals profit-taking rather than trend reversal. The index remains technically constructive, but follow-through depends on earnings confirmation and stability in rates.

---

OIL (WTI) — Supply Risks Drive Momentum

Key Highlights

• WTI reaches the highest level since September
• Iran tensions and Middle East risk support prices
• Surprise US inventory draw tightens supply outlook
• Dollar weakness adds commodity support

Market Overview

WTI crude extends higher as supply-side concerns dominate sentiment. Escalating Iran tensions, surprise inventory draws, weather-related production losses, and slower recovery at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field have combined to tighten near-term supply expectations. The weaker Dollar further amplifies upward pressure, keeping energy markets bid despite broader macro uncertainty.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in overbought territory
• Price trending above the 20-period EMA
• Structure remains bullish with consolidation risk

Key Levels

• Resistance: 64.51; 66.15
• Support: 61.96; 60.19

Fremora Takeaway

Oil’s rally is being driven by tangible supply constraints rather than sentiment alone. While overbought conditions suggest pauses are possible, the broader structure favors elevated prices as long as geopolitical and inventory pressures persist.