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S&P 500 — Bulls Target New Highs

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 inches toward all-time highs after Fed meeting
• Fed balance-sheet expansion boosts risk sentiment
• Powell dismisses rate hikes → risk assets surge
• Traders price two cuts in 2026 despite Fed’s one

Market Overview

The S&P 500 climbed to 6,887.70, fueled by a strong post-Fed rally. The combination of a rate cut, dovish forward guidance, and T-bill purchase plans triggered broad buying across equities.

Markets downplayed the limited easing projected in the Fed’s dot plot, instead focusing on Powell’s emphasis on labor market deterioration — a signal that additional support may be needed in 2026.

The move reopens expectations for a year-end rally, with analysts highlighting the index’s proximity to the psychological 7,000 threshold.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic approaches overbought → sustained bullish drive
• Price holds above 20 MA → breakout structure intact
• Momentum supports test of resistance band

Key Levels

Resistance	Support
6966.21	6776.96
7033.91	6705.64

Fremora Takeaway

Bulls remain in control.
Targets: 6966 → 7034.
As long as Fed messaging stays dovish, dips look buyable.

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WTI Crude Oil — Attempts Recovery But Trend Still Fragile

Key Highlights

• WTI rebounds toward $59 on USD weakness
• Underlying supply outlook remains heavy
• Iraq’s West Qurna 2 restart adds 460k bpd
• Ukraine negotiations continue to shape risk premium

Market Overview

WTI edged up to $58.64, recovering from earlier losses as the Fed-driven USD selloff offered commodity support. However, the broader supply narrative remains challenging, with Iraq’s production restoration and potential developments in Ukraine continuing to cap upside momentum.

Diplomatic progress on a ceasefire remains the primary downside risk to oil prices, while structural supply growth from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers limits sustainable rallies.

The Fed’s balance-sheet expansion adds a marginal tailwind, but fundamentals remain the dominant driver.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic climbs toward overbought → rebound gaining traction
• Price retests the 20 MA from below → critical decision area
• Break above 20 MA needed to confirm trend shift

Key Levels

Resistance	Support
59.27	58.02
60.06	57.29

Fremora Takeaway

Rebound improving, but trend still bearish.
A close above 59.27 would strengthen reversal prospects.
Failure → retreat toward 58.02 and possibly 57.29.