SPX/USD – Pullback From Records Tests Momentum

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 retreats from all-time highs
• Financials and energy lead losses
• Policy headlines weigh on sentiment
• Jobs data back in focus

Market Overview

US equities paused after reaching record levels, with the S&P 500 slipping as sector-specific pressure hit financials, energy, and defense stocks. Political headlines and comments on corporate restrictions added to short-term caution.

Despite the pullback, broader sentiment remains constructive, with traders viewing the move as consolidation ahead of key US labor data rather than a trend reversal.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic drifting toward oversold
• Price testing 20-period EMA
• Momentum weakening but not broken

Key Levels

Resistance: 6959.76; 6993.33
Support: 6885.43; 6853.00

Fremora Takeaway

The index is cooling after a strong start to the year, with the 20-period EMA acting as a key pivot. Holding support keeps the broader uptrend intact, while a deeper break would signal further correction risk.

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USO/USD – Oversupply Narrative Weighs on Crude

Key Highlights

• Crude extends decline below $56
• Venezuelan oil transfer raises supply fears
• Market dismisses disruption risks
• Demand outlook remains fragile

Market Overview

WTI crude remains under pressure after President Trump confirmed plans for large Venezuelan oil transfers to the US, intensifying oversupply concerns. Markets are increasingly focused on long-term production potential rather than short-term geopolitical disruption.

The narrative has shifted decisively bearish, with traders pricing in the possibility of structurally higher supply if Venezuelan infrastructure is rehabilitated under US oversight.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic stabilising near oversold
• Price below 20-period EMA
• Bearish bias persists

Key Levels

Resistance: 56.84; 57.76
Support: 55.54; 54.57

Fremora Takeaway

Crude remains vulnerable under oversupply pressure, with rallies likely capped below resistance. Stabilisation depends on holding support, but the broader bias stays negative unless the supply narrative shifts.