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SPX/USD — Consolidation After Data Whiplash

Key Highlights

• Index holds steady after fading post-jobs rally
• Rotation persists: software weak, infrastructure stronger
• CPI is the next major driver

Previous Session Overview

The S&P 500 consolidated, trading near 6945.65 after a choppy reaction to jobs data.

Market Outlook

SPX is holding near 6945.65, stabilizing after an initial push higher that faded as traders digested the “headline vs reality” split in the labor report. The January payroll beat looked supportive, but major downward revisions to 2025 employment keep a question mark over growth momentum.

At the same time, the market remains selective:

• Software and parts of growth remain under pressure (valuation + AI disruption fears),
• while infrastructure-linked names are catching bids (data center buildout narrative).

This is classic late-cycle behavior: the index can stay resilient while leadership rotates underneath. CPI will likely decide whether the next move is a breakout toward resistance or a drop back into support.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic in the middle range
• Price consolidating around the 20-period moving average
• Range-bound structure with quick swings possible

Key Levels to Watch

• Current Price: 6945.65
• Resistance: 6982.46 | 7016.81
• Support: 6907.99 | 6873.13

Fremora Takeaway

SPX remains neutral while inside 6907.99–6982.46. A break above 6982.46 opens 7016.81, while losing 6907.99 risks a slide toward 6873.13.

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WTI (USO/USD) — Premium Holds Despite Supply Noise

Key Highlights

• Oil remains supported near $65 on geopolitical premium
• Inventory builds cap runaway upside
• Resistance zone remains the immediate test

Previous Session Overview

WTI pushed higher and consolidated near 64.96, holding gains driven by geopolitical concerns.

Market Outlook

WTI crude is trading around 64.96, supported by geopolitical premium tied to US–Iran tension and broader trade uncertainty. This bid has been strong enough to keep oil elevated even while physical data (like inventory builds) warns that supply is not tight.

That creates a two-speed market:

• headlines and risk premium support the upside,
• fundamentals and supply data argue for limited follow-through unless tensions escalate.

Technically, price is now compressing near resistance. If the market senses de-escalation, oil can drop quickly into support. If risks intensify, a breakout is possible—but it likely needs fresh fuel from headlines.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic stabilizing after coming off higher levels
• Price holding above the 20-period moving average
• Bullish bias with consolidation risk near resistance

Key Levels to Watch

• Current Price: 64.96
• Resistance: 65.83 | 66.84
• Support: 63.87 | 62.85

Fremora Takeaway

Oil remains supported while above 63.87. A break above 65.83 targets 66.84, but failure to hold support quickly exposes 62.85.