EUR/USD — Consolidation Ahead of Eurozone CPI

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD trades at 1.1608, near 3-week highs
• Fed cut odds stay elevated at ~85%
• USD Index soft near 99.00
• Eurozone CPI + Unemployment in focus today

Market Overview

EUR/USD extended its move higher on Monday, reaching the 1.1650 area before easing modestly into 1.1608. The pair remains supported as markets continue pricing in a December Fed rate cut, despite Powell cautioning against assuming it as guaranteed.

Dovish commentary from multiple Fed officials has strengthened the belief that policy remains “modestly restrictive,” with a fragile labor market reinforcing the case for easing.

Across Europe, the euro benefits from ECB stability, though underlying data—flat German GDP and weak business sentiment—remains soft.
Today’s Eurozone CPI and unemployment releases will be the key catalysts for directional movement.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic easing from overbought
• Price above 20-period MA
• Uptrend structure remains intact

Resistance	Support
1.1651	1.1551
1.1710	1.1491

Fremora Takeaway

Holding above 1.1600 keeps buyers in control.
Break above 1.1651 → opens 1.1710.
Weak CPI → pullback toward 1.1551.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Bullish Above $4,200

Key Highlights

• Gold trades at $4,232, consolidating after strong gains
• Fed cut expectations near 85% support upside
• USD remains soft near 99.00
• Market awaits key US data this week

Market Overview

Gold continues its upward momentum after last week’s rally, briefly surpassing $4,260 before consolidating above $4,200. The metal enjoys strong tailwinds from growing expectations of a December Fed cut, reinforced by dovish Fed commentary before the blackout period began.

With the Fed silent until next week’s meeting, gold will react primarily to economic data: ISM surveys, jobs numbers, and Friday’s PCE inflation.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic pulls back from overbought
• Price holding firmly above 20 MA
• Structure suggests accumulation, not exhaustion

Resistance	Support
4274.57	4157.05
4341.25	4082.07

Fremora Takeaway

Bias remains bullish above $4,157.
Upside room toward $4,274 → $4,341 if data stays supportive.

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GBP/USD — Pullback but Uptrend Intact

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD trades at 1.3210, off 3-week highs
• Pullback from 1.3280 driven by profit-taking
• Market maintains bullish bias on Fed–BoE divergence
• UK housing + shop price data in focus today

Market Overview

GBP/USD briefly touched 1.3280 before retracing lower, driven largely by profit-taking after a strong multi-day advance. The broader trend remains constructive as traders price in a US Fed cut, contrasting with the BoE’s slower stance on easing.

Today’s UK data (BRC Inflation, Nationwide Housing Prices) may shape the intraday bias, but the dominant driver remains the USD side of the equation.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic nearing oversold zone
• Price consolidating around the 20 MA
• This area will decide next leg

Resistance	Support
1.3313	1.3152
1.3371	1.3098

Fremora Takeaway

Holding above 1.3200 keeps the bullish structure intact.
Break below 1.3152 → deeper correction possible.