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EUR/USD — Breakout Eyes 1.1700 After Soft US Jobs Data

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD jumps to 1.1669, its fresh 2-month high
• ADP private payrolls fall 32,000 vs. +40,000 expected
• Markets price 89% probability of Fed rate cut next week

Market Overview

EUR/USD pushed to new multi-month highs on Wednesday as the US Dollar suffered heavy losses following sharply disappointing ADP employment data. Private payrolls unexpectedly contracted, strengthening the case for a Fed rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting.

The Dollar Index broke decisively below 99.00, hitting five-week lows, with traders now fully embracing the easing narrative. The Euro’s strength remains driven more by Dollar weakness than Eurozone fundamentals, with the ECB signaling stability while US data deteriorates.

Today’s focus shifts to:

• US Initial Jobless Claims
• Challenger Job Cuts
• US Trade Balance
• Eurozone Construction PMI & Retail Sales

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic deeply overbought
• Price running well above 20-period MA
• Momentum strong but extended

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1709 / 1.1758
• Support: 1.1632 / 1.1587

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD looks set to test 1.1700, but the overbought structure warns of a cooling phase.
Weak US data = fresh breakout.
Stabilization in USD = pullback toward 1.1632.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Fed Cut Hopes Keep Gold Firm Above $4,200

Key Highlights

• Gold trades at $4,205, holding above the key $4,200 zone
• ADP’s negative jobs print boosts Fed cut expectations
• Dollar sinks to 5-week lows, supporting gold

Market Overview

Gold advanced on Wednesday as the US Dollar plunged after the ADP report showed an unexpected 32,000 decline in private sector jobs. With markets now pricing an 89% chance of a rate cut next week, gold continues to benefit from softer yields and Dollar weakness.

Despite the bullish macro backdrop, gold remains in a tight consolidation, unable to retest the highs above $4,260. Traders appear to be positioning ahead of Friday’s critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may dictate gold’s next major move.

Today brings:

• US Challenger Job Cuts
• US Initial Jobless Claims

These will shape expectations ahead of NFP.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic drifting toward oversold
• Price sitting at the 20-period MA
• Setup favors a bounce if $4,200 holds

Key Levels

• Resistance: 4274.57 / 4341.25
• Support: 4157.05 / 4082.07

Fremora Takeaway

Gold remains constructive, but the market wants confirmation from NFP before pushing higher.
Holding $4,200 keeps the door open for another run toward $4,274.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Breaks Above 1.3300 on Dollar Collapse

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD surges to 1.3348
• Fed–BoE policy divergence continues to favor GBP
• ADP shock data intensifies USD weakness

Market Overview

Sterling extended gains on Wednesday, vaulting above 1.3300 and approaching its 200-day SMA as the Dollar cratered on weak US labor data. Markets now expect a Dec. 10 Fed rate cut with near certainty.

The BoE’s slower path toward easing continues to support GBP. UK local data (Construction PMI and DMP survey) will be watched, but US Jobless Claims and NFP remain the key market drivers.

Technical Outlook

• Stochastic overbought
• Price holding well above 20-period MA
• Strong bullish structure but stretched

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3392 / 1.3452
• Support: 1.3298 / 1.3237

Fremora Takeaway

GBP/USD is in full bullish breakout mode.
A daily close above the 200-day SMA confirms an extension toward 1.3392–1.3452.
Expect a pause if US data stabilizes.