EUR/USD extends its decline for the fifth straight day, dropping toward the 1.1500 region as the US Dollar strengthens on collapsing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. With NFP due later today, volatility risks are elevated.
Entry Zone: Sell on retracements into 1.1540 – 1.1560
Stop Loss: Above 1.1625
Targets: 1.1480, then 1.1420 if downside accelerates
Catalyst Watch: US NFP (September), ECB/Eurozone PMI, DXY surge, FOMC minutes impact
Trading Rationale
EUR/USD continues its bearish slide as fundamentals increasingly favor the US Dollar:
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near a five-month high at 100.30.
- Fed cut expectations drop sharply — CME FedWatch now shows only 32.8% odds of a December 25bp cut (down from 50.1% two days ago).
- FOMC Minutes revealed many policymakers oppose further easing, warning that additional cuts may boost inflation expectations.
- Traders shift focus to the delayed September NFP, with many Fed officials highlighting downside labor market risks.
- The euro remains pressured as risk appetite weakens globally.
Technically, EUR/USD has broken below the key 1.1560 support and is pushing deeper into the 1.1500 zone. Momentum indicators remain bearish with no sign of reversal yet.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.1517
Potential Resistance: 1.1562 / 1.1622
Potential Support: 1.1470 / 1.1417
DISCLAIMER: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may result in losses. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always manage your risk.
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