EUR/USD trades near 1.1580 and remains subdued for a fourth straight session as the US Dollar benefits from fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut. With the delayed NFP report due Thursday, volatility could rise sharply.
Entry Zone: Sell on bounces toward 1.1605 – 1.1620
Stop Loss: Above 1.1665
Targets: 1.1550, then 1.1510 if bearish continuation emerges
Catalyst Watch: NFP release (delayed), Fed commentary, ECB policy stance
Trading Rationale
The pair continues to drift lower as US data and Fed signals favor the USD:
- CME FedWatch now shows just 49% odds of a December 25bp cut — down from 67% a week ago.
- Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly, while ADP data showed employers cutting jobs on a weekly basis — signaling uncertainty in the labor market.
- Fed’s Thomas Barkin noted inflation progress remains unclear, reinforcing the cautious tone within the FOMC.
- ECB is expected to remain steady as inflation stabilizes, limiting upside for the euro.
Technically, EUR/USD remains trapped below the 1.1600 barrier, trading beneath its H4 moving average. Sellers continue to defend the 1.1620–1.1630 resistance zone.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 1.1581
Potential Resistance: 1.1627 / 1.1664
Potential Support: 1.1547 / 1.1509
DISCLAIMER & CTA
DISCLAIMER: Trading forex and CFDs carries significant risk and may lead to loss of capital. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always trade responsibly.
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