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EUR/USD — Euro Extends Post-Fed Momentum Toward 1.18

Key Highlights

• Fed dovish tone keeps USD pinned near multi-week lows
• US jobless claims jump, reinforcing labor-market concerns
• Market now pricing deeper 2026 easing than Fed’s own projections

Market Overview

EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1750 as the dollar struggled to recover from Wednesday’s sharp selloff. Weak US jobless claims added pressure on the Greenback, validating the Fed’s growing concerns around employment softening. Diverging labor-market trends between the US and Eurozone continue to support euro upside as markets reassess the Fed’s projected rate path for 2026.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Price holds firmly above the 20-period MA
• Stochastic remains in overbought zone—momentum strong
• Structure favors continuation toward upper resistance

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.1795; 1.1852
Support: 1.1685; 1.1623

Fremora Takeaway

Euro momentum remains intact as USD weakness deepens. As long as price sustains above 1.1685, EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias toward 1.18. Only a strong USD catalyst could disrupt current trajectory.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Gold Breaks Out to Six-Week Highs

Key Highlights

• Gold rallies past $4,270 on renewed USD selling
• Treasury yields fall across the curve post-FOMC
• Fed balance-sheet expansion adds structural support

Market Overview

Gold surged toward $4,280 as the post-Fed environment continues to favor non-yielding assets. Weak US labor data amplified USD pressure, while Powell’s dismissal of rate-hike risks strengthens long-duration bullish flows. Traders now price in more easing than the Fed’s dot plot suggests, creating an upward skew for gold.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Price breaks decisively above resistance zone
• Stochastic in overbought region — strong momentum
• Channel structure supports continuation toward higher targets

Key Levels

Resistance: 4328.38; 4380.69
Support: 4220.76; 4173.72

Fremora Takeaway

Gold’s breakout is technically and fundamentally aligned. Above $4,220, bullish continuation remains the base case. Momentum may cool short-term, but structure favors a push into the $4,300s.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Strong Near Monthly Peaks

Key Highlights

• GBP consolidates after rally near 1.3440
• USD pressured by rising jobless claims
• BoE–Fed divergence continues to underpin sterling

Market Overview

The pound held firm after its post-Fed surge, with USD weakness overshadowing early attempts at recovery. Markets continue rewarding GBP given the UK’s relatively stable economic tone versus softening US labor data. Momentum cooled, but underlying strength remains intact.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic easing from overbought zone
• Price retraces toward 20-period MA (dynamic support)
• Uptrend structure remains healthy above 1.3320

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.3450; 1.3522
Support: 1.3320; 1.3258

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling retains bullish structure despite correction. Holding above 1.3320 keeps 1.3450 in view. Only a materially stronger dollar could shift near-term bias.