📊 EUR/USD — Breaks Down as Markets Brace for NFP
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD slides to multi-day lows near 1.1530 as Dollar strength extends
- FOMC Minutes reinforce Fed caution, cutting December rate-cut odds to ~45%
- NFP becomes the most important data release since the 43-day shutdown
Market Overview
EUR/USD extended its decline toward 1.1530 as persistent risk-off sentiment and broad Dollar strength weighed on the pair. The Dollar Index surged past the psychological 100.00 barrier and above the 200-day SMA, signaling strong bullish momentum despite falling Treasury yields.
The latest FOMC Minutes showed a Fed still reluctant to cut rates too soon, reinforcing the dramatic collapse in December cut expectations—from over 90% a month ago to around 45% today. This shift has been the primary driver behind the Dollar’s multi-day surge.
Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report carries heightened importance. It is the first major dataset released following the historic 43-day government shutdown, and markets desperately need fresh signals after weeks of uncertainty. Strong labor data will likely push EUR/USD toward the next support cluster.
Eurozone data today includes Germany PPI, EMU Construction Output, and Consumer Confidence, along with remarks from ECB’s Buch. However, none are expected to dramatically alter sentiment given the dominant US macro narrative.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic holding near oversold — pressure remains heavy
- Price trading decisively below 20-period MA — bearish structure intact
- Breach of ascending channel confirms trend deterioration
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1561 | 1.1509 |
| 1.1601 | 1.1473 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD has broken below key channel support, shifting the bias firmly lower.
A break beneath 1.1509 opens the path toward 1.1473.
Bulls need a reclaim of 1.1561 to negate immediate downside risk.
NFP will likely determine the pair’s trajectory for the next several sessions.
🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Holds Above Support Despite Strong Dollar
Key Highlights
- Gold trades near $4,078, recovering above $4,100 earlier in the session
- Treasury yields drop sharply, offsetting Dollar strength
- Market awaits key NFP release to resolve the conflicting signals
Market Overview
Gold extended Tuesday’s rebound, briefly pushing above $4,100 even as the Dollar strengthened for a fourth straight day. The unusual ability of gold to rise alongside a strong Dollar reflects the dominant influence of falling Treasury yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The FOMC Minutes reinforced the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts, keeping December cut odds near 45%—well below the 90% probability priced a month ago. This creates headwinds for gold, even as yields soften.
Markets now turn to today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could decisively break gold’s consolidation. A strong NFP print would likely revive hawkish expectations and pressure gold lower. A weak print could fuel upside momentum and push the metal back toward the upper resistance zone.
Risk sentiment improved slightly yesterday with the S&P 500 snapping a four-day skid and Nvidia advancing 3% ahead of earnings. But with AI valuations still in question, safe-haven flows remain unstable.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic attempting to turn lower from the overbought region
- Price stabilizing around the 20-period MA — indecision ahead of NFP
- Momentum shows early signs of exhaustion
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4146.13 | 4008.64 |
| 4226.33 | 3933.39 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold is caught between soft yields (bullish) and strong USD (bearish).
A break above 4146 would reopen the path toward 4226.
Failure to hold 4008 risks a move back toward $4,000 and 3933.
NFP will likely resolve this near-term balance of forces.
💷 GBP/USD — Breaks 1.3100 as Soft CPI Reinforces BoE Cut Expectations
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD collapses to 1.3058 after softer UK CPI
- Markets now price ~50% probability of December BoE cut
- Dollar strength amplifies the downside pressure
Market Overview
GBP/USD broke decisively below the important 1.3100 support as Sterling weakened following softer-than-expected UK CPI data. With inflation easing and broader UK fundamentals deteriorating—unemployment at 5%, slowing wage growth, weak GDP—the case for a December BoE rate cut has strengthened.
The Dollar’s ongoing surge has only accelerated the downside move. The Dollar Index breaking above 100.00 and the 200-day SMA signals firm momentum fueled by collapsing Fed cut odds.
Today’s NFP report becomes the next major catalyst. Strong data would reinforce the bearish case for GBP/USD, while a weak release could spark a relief bounce. But given Sterling’s domestic challenges, upside reactions may be limited.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic near oversold — selling pressure stretched
- Price firmly below 20-period MA — bearish structure intact
- Break of 1.3100 signals trend continuation
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3104 | 1.3008 |
| 1.3146 | 1.2965 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD is vulnerable after breaking 1.3100.
Downside targets include 1.3008, then 1.2965 (seven-month low).
Upside recovery requires reclaiming 1.3104, but any rally is likely to face selling pressure.
Sterling’s fundamental backdrop remains fragile.
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Disclaimer
This material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.