📊 EUR/USD — Pressured as FOMC Minutes Take Center Stage
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1570 as Dollar holds a constructive tone
- FOMC Minutes become the main catalyst amid collapsing cut expectations
- Risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto boosts Dollar demand
Market Overview
EUR/USD slipped to multi-day lows near 1.1570 as the Dollar held steady in a risk-off environment. The pair continues to fade from the 1.1600+ zone as markets digest the latest shift in rate expectations—December Fed cut odds have plunged from over 90% to roughly 45%, reinforcing support for the Greenback.
Today’s FOMC Minutes are the pivotal driver. While “stale” due to the prolonged government shutdown, the minutes still carry weight for markets searching for clues on policymakers’ tolerance for inflation and their appetite for near-term easing. Hawkish remarks within the text could further flatten rate-cut hopes and pressure EUR/USD.
Global sentiment remains fragile. Tech shares extended their selloff, the S&P 500 logged a fourth straight decline, and bitcoin briefly broke below $90,000—classic signs of reduced risk appetite. In such conditions, USD typically attracts defensive inflows.
On the Eurozone side, today’s Current Account figures, final CPI reading, and Labour Cost Index may offer mild intraday impact. ECB’s Buch will also speak, though President Lagarde’s recent “good place” policy stance still characterizes the central bank’s cautious posture.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic sliding toward oversold territory
- Price consolidating just below the 20-period MA
- Bearish pressure persists but oversold signals may limit downside
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1652 | 1.1510 |
| 1.1739 | 1.1404 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD remains vulnerable heading into the FOMC Minutes.
A hawkish tone risks a retest of 1.1510, with 1.1404 exposed if support fails.
For bulls, recovery requires a reclaim of the 20-period MA and a break above 1.1652 to retarget 1.1739.
Momentum favors the Dollar unless the minutes deliver an unexpectedly dovish surprise.
🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Attempts Recovery, But Fed Repricing Caps Upside
Key Highlights
- Gold rebounds toward $4,100 amid risk-off flows
- Upside limited by collapsing rate-cut bets (down to 45%)
- Nvidia earnings & Fed commentary add volatility risk
Market Overview
Gold staged a modest rebound on Tuesday, climbing back toward $4,100 as fading risk appetite supported safe-haven demand. Lower Treasury yields also provided room for the recovery, though gains remain capped by the sharp repricing of Fed expectations.
The precious metal continues to battle a macro headwind: the sinking probability of a December cut. With odds collapsing from above 90% to around 45%, the Dollar has strengthened and the opportunity cost of holding gold has risen.
Weakness in stocks helped stabilize gold. The S&P 500 logged its longest losing streak since August, tech shares tumbled again, and bitcoin slipped below $90,000—classic signals of investors stepping back from risk-sensitive assets.
Today’s FOMC Minutes may shape gold’s next move. A hawkish tilt risks pushing gold back toward $4,000, while dovish tones could help extend the recovery. Fed official Williams will also speak, adding another layer of event risk.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic turning higher toward overbought zone
- Price rising toward 20-period MA from below
- Momentum improving but faces overhead resistance
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4146.13 | 3999.15 |
| 4226.33 | 3928.19 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold’s short-term rebound is constructive, but the macro backdrop is still mixed.
Reclaiming the 20-period MA is the first step for bulls—then 4146 becomes the key breakout zone.
Holding above $4,000 is crucial.
A break below 3999 exposes 3928 and the deeper Fibonacci retracement near $3,975.
💷 GBP/USD — CPI on Deck as Sterling Awaits Direction
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades sideways near 1.3140 ahead of UK CPI
- Weak UK macro backdrop keeps downside risks elevated
- Dollar supported by risk-off mood and collapsed Fed cut pricing
Market Overview
GBP/USD hovered around the 1.3150 area, lacking directional conviction as markets braced for today’s critical UK Inflation Rate. With unemployment rising to 5% and wage growth slowing to 4.6%, any downside inflation surprise would reinforce expectations of a December BoE rate cut.
Risk sentiment remained fragile across global markets—stocks slid, tech names fell sharply, and bitcoin’s dip under $90,000 signaled broader derisking. In such conditions, the Pound typically struggles.
On the US side, the Dollar remains supported by falling rate-cut odds and anticipation of the FOMC Minutes. Traders are watching for any sign that the Fed is concerned about growth risks—which could soften USD strength—or focused squarely on inflation, which would reinforce the hawkish repricing.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic drifting lower toward oversold
- Price hovering around 20-period MA
- Neutral-to-bearish bias with scope for technical bounce
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3217 | 1.3096 |
| 1.3251 | 1.3056 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD remains stuck in a tight range ahead of UK CPI.
A hot print could lift Sterling toward 1.3217, while soft inflation risks a drop toward 1.3096 and potentially 1.3056.
The pair carries a mild downside bias unless both UK data and the FOMC Minutes shift materially in Sterling’s favor.
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Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.