📊 EUR/USD — Dollar Strength Caps Euro Recovery
Key Highlights
- Fed cut expectations collapse from 90% → 45%
- Dollar extends rebound, pushing EUR/USD back toward 1.1580
- ADP Weekly Employment report becomes crucial proxy for labor data
Market Overview
EUR/USD softened for a second straight session, slipping toward the 1.1590–1.1580 zone as the US Dollar regained upside momentum. The Dollar Index climbed toward 99.50, supported by the market’s aggressive repricing of December Fed cuts.
The dramatic shift in rate expectations — from almost certain cuts to barely 45% odds — has reshaped currency flows, favoring the Greenback even as the US economy deals with delayed data after the 43-day government shutdown.
With October payrolls still unavailable, traders turn to today’s ADP Employment Weekly as a temporary barometer for labor strength. Factory Orders, NAHB Housing Index, and speeches from Fed’s Logan & Barr add to a data-heavy session.
Europe will also hear from multiple ECB officials, though Lagarde’s “we are in a good place” stance limits market-impact potential.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic attempting to cross higher from oversold
- Price consolidating just below the 20-period MA
- Structure hints at a potential corrective bounce
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1675 | 1.1538 |
| 1.1739 | 1.1474 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD still trades within its broader ascending channel, but momentum favors the Dollar until rate expectations shift again.
A break above 1.1675 is needed to reopen upside targets.
Loss of 1.1538 risks a slide toward 1.1474 and may negate the bullish bias.
🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Sliding Toward $4,000 as Fed Doubts Rise
Key Highlights
- Three-day decline pulls gold toward $4,000
- Strong Dollar and rising yields pressure non-yielding assets
- Fed officials continue signaling caution
Market Overview
Gold extended its downside correction, slipping toward $4,041 as the combination of a firmer Dollar and steady Treasury yields weighed on sentiment.
The big driver is still the collapse of Fed cut expectations — a shift that has drained demand from safe-haven trades built during the prolonged government shutdown. With data finally set to resume, the market is resetting risk positions.
Fed voices remain hawkish:
- Musalem: “Proceed with caution.”
- Kashkari: “Inflation is still too high.”
This tone has kept gold under sustained pressure. While risk-off pockets from tech weakness offer temporary support, today’s ADP Weekly remains the main catalyst.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic near oversold — selling momentum may slow
- Price trading below 20-period MA — bearish tone
- Momentum favors a retest of the $4,000 psychological level
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4098.39 | 3965.67 |
| 4146.13 | 3915.85 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold must reclaim 4098 to stabilize.
A close below 3965 exposes deeper retracements toward 3915 and the $3,975 Fibonacci zone.
Weak ADP numbers could revive rate cut speculation — gold would benefit immediately.
💷 GBP/USD — Sterling Stuck as UK Weakness Meets Dollar Strength
Key Highlights
- UK fundamentals soft: rising unemployment, slowing wage growth
- December BoE cut expectations rise
- Consolidation continues around 1.3150
Market Overview
GBP/USD remains trapped near 1.3155 as the stronger Dollar and weak UK macro backdrop keep Sterling under pressure. The Dollar’s rebound is driven by collapsing Fed cut bets, while the UK faces deteriorating labor data and softer growth.
UK politics added noise after the government scrapped proposed tax increases, raising questions about fiscal direction. Markets now await BoE’s Dhingra speech for clues on December policy.
With US ADP Weekly and UK CPI ahead, volatility is likely to rise mid-week.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic in mid-range — neutral energy
- Price resting on 20-period MA — equilibrium zone
- Bearish undertone remains with 21-day SMA pointing lower
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3217 | 1.3096 |
| 1.3251 | 1.3056 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD needs a decisive break above 1.3217 to turn momentum constructive.
Weakness below 1.3096 risks a retest of 1.3056 and the seven-month low.
UK CPI + FOMC Minutes will set the tone for the week.
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