📊 EUR/USD — Dollar Strength Keeps Pressure on 1.1500
Key Highlights
- EUR/USD trades near 1.1527 after brief corrective bounce
- Fed cut odds fall below 40% after strong NFP (119k)
- Dollar Index breaks above 100.00 despite falling yields
Market Overview
EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure near 1.1527, unable to extend Thursday’s minor corrective move as Dollar strength dominates global FX. The Dollar Index surged to six-month highs above 100.00, driven by sharply reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut. After the stronger-than-expected 119,000 NFP reading, markets now assign less than 40% probability to a December cut—down from over 90% a month ago.
The sentiment shift was severe enough to overshadow Nvidia’s stellar earnings, with the S&P 500 reversing a +1.9% rally into a -1.56% close. Markets have clearly internalized that the Fed’s easing cycle is not guaranteed, adding further support to the Greenback.
Today’s PMI releases (US & Europe) take center stage. Eurozone and German flash PMIs will help determine whether Europe is stabilizing or slipping further. ECB speakers—including Lagarde, De Guindos, and Machado—add additional catalysts, while US PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment will shape afternoon momentum. Fed officials Williams, Barr, Jefferson, and Logan will also speak, injecting headline risk through the session.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic bouncing from oversold — early recovery signals
- Price still below 20-period MA — bearish bias intact
- Momentum fragile at the key 1.1500 support zone
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.1527
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.1575 | 1.1468 |
| 1.1640 | 1.1404 |
Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD sits directly above critical support.
A break below 1.1500 / 1.1468 confirms bearish continuation.
Upside requires clearing 1.1575, then 1.1640, but Fed repricing keeps the path of least resistance lower—unless PMI data surprises meaningfully in Europe’s favor.
🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) — Capped Below 20-MA as Fed Outlook Turns Against Bulls
Key Highlights
- Gold trades at 4078.32, unable to extend its rebound
- Fed cut expectations drop below 40%, pressuring non-yielding assets
- Dollar momentum overwhelms traditional yield-driven gold support
Market Overview
Gold remains pinned around $4078, consolidating near the 20-period MA as buyers struggle to overcome the Fed-driven Dollar surge. Despite falling Treasury yields—which normally support gold—the metal is losing traction as the Dollar rallies to six-month highs.
Thursday’s NFP print (119k) reinforced labor-market resilience and pushed December cut odds sharply lower. This hawkish repricing is now the primary driver suppressing gold’s upside, even as equity markets wobble and PMIs approach.
Today’s PMI-day is a decisive moment for gold. Strong US PMIs → reinforces the “no landing” narrative → strengthens USD → gold pressured. Weak PMIs → breaths life into rate-cut expectations → potential recovery toward upper resistance.
With four Fed speakers today, headline risk remains high.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic flattening — momentum neutral
- Price consolidated around 20-MA — equilibrium point
- Market waiting for PMI catalyst for breakout direction
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 4078.32
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 4146.13 | 3999.15 |
| 4226.33 | 3928.19 |
Fremora Takeaway
Gold is range-bound and awaiting direction.
Below 4000, selling pressure intensifies.
Above 4146, bulls gain control and aim for 4226.
The metal sits at a pivot zone where PMI data and Fed tone will decide the next leg.
💷 GBP/USD — Relative Strength Masks a Fragile Underlying Picture
Key Highlights
- GBP/USD trades at 1.3068 after rejecting moves above 1.3100
- Sterling outperforms peers despite soft UK CPI earlier in the week
- UK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales & PMIs in focus today
Market Overview
GBP/USD holds around 1.3068, showing relative resilience even as broader markets turn risk-off and the Dollar extends its run to six-month highs. After touching above 1.3100 Thursday, the pair slipped back into range but outperformed EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
Sterling’s support comes from intraday flows and short-covering—not fundamentals. UK data remains soft: inflation slowed, wage growth decelerated, and GDP stagnated. Markets now price roughly 40–45% probability of a December BoE cut.
Today’s UK Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, and flash PMIs are pivotal. Strong PMIs could stabilize Sterling; weak numbers risk exposing the 1.3000 zone.
On the US side, PMIs, Michigan sentiment, and multiple Fed speakers introduce volatility.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic mid-range — bounce has stalled
- Price below 20-period MA — trend remains bearish
- Recovery attempts capped near 1.3100
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 1.3068
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 1.3097 | 1.3036 |
| 1.3126 | 1.3009 |
Fremora Takeaway
GBP/USD is stuck between 1.3036–1.3097.
UK data today will determine direction.
Break below 1.3036 → opens 1.3009 & 1.2965 area.
Break above 1.3097 → retests 1.3126, but upside likely capped unless UK PMIs outperform.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.