---

EUR/USD — Euro Near 1.2000 as “Sell America” Takes Control

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD trades near levels last seen in June 2021
• Dollar Index hits its lowest point since February 2022
• Fed decision is the week’s key volatility trigger
• Greenland-linked geopolitical friction remains a sentiment overhang

Market Overview

EUR/USD extends its rally and consolidates just below 1.2000 as the “Sell America” narrative dominates cross-asset positioning. Dollar weakness remains the primary driver, supported by softer employment momentum and persistent geopolitical uncertainty tied to US–Europe tensions. With the Fed decision ahead, markets are positioned for language that validates easing expectations, leaving the Dollar vulnerable to further pressure unless policymakers deliver a hawkish surprise.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in overbought territory
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Setup signals strong bullish momentum with elevated near-term reversal risk

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.2083; 1.2148
• Support: 1.1920; 1.1845

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD strength is less about Euro enthusiasm and more about a broad reassessment of Dollar credibility into the Fed event. Momentum remains constructive above the 20 EMA, but the combination of overbought conditions and policy event risk makes the 1.2000 zone a key behavioral test.

---

GOLD (XAU/USD) — Structural Bid Holds as Dollar Slides

Key Highlights

• Gold extends deeper into record territory above $5,200
• Dollar weakness provides a strong tailwind into the Fed
• Safe-haven demand remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty
• Market focus remains on Fed guidance and future easing signals

Market Overview

Gold continues higher as investors treat the Dollar decline and policy uncertainty as structural catalysts rather than temporary shocks. The metal benefits from the combination of a weaker Greenback, ongoing geopolitical tension, and heightened sensitivity to Fed communication. With easing expectations already priced, gold remains supported as long as markets continue rotating away from US assets and treating volatility as a baseline condition.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic climbing toward overbought conditions
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Structure suggests continued bullish momentum with room for extension

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5387.71; 5476.02
• Support: 5038.66; 4937.74

Fremora Takeaway

Gold is acting less like a “panic hedge” and more like an insurance allocation against credibility risk. Trend support remains intact above the 20 EMA, with the next upside targets driven by whether Fed language reinforces the market’s easing narrative.

---

GBP/USD — Sterling Surges as Dollar Weakness Overrides UK Story

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD hits levels not seen since October 2021
• Dollar collapse drives the move more than UK fundamentals
• Policy divergence expectations support Sterling positioning
• Fed decision is the near-term catalyst for volatility

Market Overview

Sterling extends its rise as the Dollar’s slide lifts major peers across the board. The move reflects global de-risking from Dollar exposure rather than a sudden improvement in the UK macro picture, with Sterling benefiting from its liquidity and relative policy stability. With the Fed decision ahead, the pair remains sensitive to any message that confirms or challenges current easing expectations.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in overbought territory
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Setup remains bullish but shows overextension risk

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3917; 1.3993
• Support: 1.3698; 1.3625

Fremora Takeaway

GBP/USD is primarily a Dollar story right now. The uptrend remains intact above the 20 EMA, but extreme momentum readings suggest the next move will depend heavily on whether the Fed reinforces or disrupts the market’s “Sell America” positioning.