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The pound is consolidating below the 1.3200 barrier ahead of tomorrow’s critical Q3 GDP data. Technical indicators show a market at a decisive junction with clear risk parameters.
Entry Zone: Sell between 1.3180-1.3200 with confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 1.3220
Targets: 1.3053 support, then 1.2965 if bearish momentum accelerates
Catalyst Watch: UK Q3 GDP data release tomorrow at 07:00 GMT
Trading Rationale
The GBP/USD is testing a critical technical decision point:
- Price is meeting firm resistance at the 1.3200 psychological level
- The 20-day EMA (red line) has flattened and is now acting as resistance
- Stochastic oscillator showing early signs of downward momentum
- Multiple rejections at 1.3200 suggest sellers defending this level
With UK economic momentum potentially stalling (forecasts showing mild 0.2% QoQ GDP growth) and expectations for another BoE rate cut in December, the technical setup aligns with fundamental pressures on sterling.
Watch for a potential breakdown if tomorrow’s GDP data disappoints, which could accelerate the move toward 1.3053 support.
For breakout traders: A sustained move above 1.3216 resistance would invalidate this bearish view and potentially open the path toward 1.3300.
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