📈 S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Fourth Straight Decline as Tech Weakness Deepens
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 posts fourth consecutive loss — longest skid since August
- Nvidia earnings after the bell may define the market’s near-term direction
- Risk-off mood persists as Fed cut expectations collapse to ~45%
Market Overview
US equities extended their decline on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 dropping another 0.83% to trade near 6,631. The index is now more than 3.5% off recent all-time highs as tech-sector stress continues to dominate sentiment.
Nvidia fell nearly 3% ahead of its high-stakes earnings release later today, deepening its monthly decline to over 10%. Concerns persist around stretched AI valuations and the uncertain timeline for monetizing massive AI-related capex. Other tech giants added pressure: Amazon slid over 4%, Microsoft nearly 3%.
Strategists warn that Nvidia’s performance could set the tone for broader equities. Strong results + upbeat guidance may stabilize markets, but any hint of slowing demand risks triggering a deeper correction—especially with confidence already fragile as bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000.
Analysts like Sam Stovall have suggested the S&P 500 could see an 8–9% pullback before stabilizing, though positive earnings and steady labor data could limit downside. Today’s FOMC Minutes add another layer of uncertainty as traders look for clues on the Fed’s thinking during the October meeting.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic curling higher from oversold — early rebound signals
- Price still below 20-period MA — trend remains pressured
- 50-day MA at 6707 now turned into resistance
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6675.95 | 6583.75 |
| 6729.93 | 6525.86 |
Fremora Takeaway
SPX/USD is trying to stabilize, but the short-term trend remains bearish.
A break below 6583 risks testing 6525—aligning with a deeper correction scenario.
Upside requires reclaiming 6675 and then 6729.
Nvidia’s results today are the key volatility trigger and could dictate sentiment for the rest of the week.
🛢 WTI Crude Oil (USO/USD) — Extends Recovery, But Structural Oversupply Limits Upside
Key Highlights
- WTI trades above $60 after four straight days of gains
- US sanctions on Russian oil offer short-term support
- Inventory builds and bearish agency forecasts cap medium-term outlook
Market Overview
WTI pushed higher toward $60.36 on Tuesday, extending its four-day rebound from multi-year lows near $58. The recovery has been supported by geopolitical risk—ranging from US sanctions on Russian producers to infrastructure vulnerabilities highlighted by recent Ukrainian strikes.
However, the underlying supply picture remains decisively bearish. Massive inventory builds continue to weigh on sentiment: the EIA recently reported a 6.4 million barrel stock increase, significantly above expectations. Storage hubs in Asia and Europe also report accumulating supply.
Energy agencies remain aligned on the medium-term narrative. OPEC forecasts a surplus into 2026, the IEA projects rising supply growth through 2025–2026, and the EIA expects record US production—all pointing toward persistent oversupply.
Traders now await today’s EIA Weekly Crude Inventory Report, which will determine whether the recent recovery continues or stalls. A second large build could quickly unwind WTI’s latest rally.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic nearing overbought — rally may face exhaustion
- Price holding above 20-period MA — short-term trend supportive
- Approaching major resistance at the 52-week MA (62.25)
Key Levels
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 61.26 | 59.27 |
| 62.25 | 58.32 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI shows near-term strength, but the rally remains technical—not fundamental.
A break above 61.26 opens the door to test 62.25, the key 52-week barrier that has repeatedly rejected upside attempts.
Failure to clear this zone risks renewed selling, especially if today’s EIA data confirms continued inventory builds.
Support at 59.27 must hold to avoid a retest of 58.32.
Fremora Community
Join our Telegram channel for real-time bias charts, sentiment polls, and intraday breakdowns.
Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.
If you want featured image prompts, LinkedIn captions, or WordPress-ready block format, just tell me — I can generate them instantly.