📊 S&P 500 (SPX/USD) — Tech-Led Rally Lifts Index Above 6,700
Key Highlights
- S&P 500 rises 1.55% to 6,705 after last week’s decline
- Alphabet surges 6.3%, leading AI-complex higher
- Fed cut odds rebound sharply to 65%+, boosting equities
- Today’s US Retail Sales, PPI, and Consumer Confidence carry high event risk
Market Overview
US equities staged a strong recovery on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.55% and tech outperforming as the Nasdaq jumped 2.69%, its best session since May. The AI sector was the clear driver, led by Alphabet’s +6.3% surge after unveiling the upgraded Gemini 3 AI model. This triggered a powerful sympathy rally across the semiconductor ecosystem, from Broadcom (+11%) to Micron (+8%) to AMD and Palantir.
The resurgence comes as Fed rate expectations shift decisively dovish. Comments from New York Fed President John Williams revived hopes of a December cut, lifting odds back above 65%—a dramatic pivot from the sub-30% probabilities seen earlier this month. Lower rate expectations helped relieve pressure on equities after the AI-led market slump in early November.
However, analysts warn that Monday’s rally lacks breadth. “When a single stock is pulling the entire market higher, it’s not a sustainable foundation,” cautioned SimCorp’s Melissa Brown.
Today’s macro focus includes delayed September Retail Sales, PPI, and consumer sentiment — key inputs for evaluating whether the US economy is heading toward a soft landing, a no landing, or a mild stagflationary mix.
Thin liquidity ahead of Thanksgiving could increase volatility, amplifying reactions to any data surprises.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic in overbought territory — rally stretched
- Price trading firmly above 20-period MA — bullish short-term structure
- Next hurdle sits at the upper resistance zone near 6779–6848
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 6712.92
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6778.76 | 6652.02 |
| 6848.18 | 6583.59 |
Fremora Takeaway
SPX/USD has reclaimed bullish momentum, but overbought conditions and narrow leadership warn of fragility.
A breakout above 6778.76 opens the path toward 6848.18.
If the index slips below 6652.02, expect a test of 6583.59, invalidating the short-term recovery.
Today’s US data will dictate whether the rally extends or stalls.
📊 WTI Crude Oil (USO/USD) — Recovering From Oversold, But Trend Still Fragile
Key Highlights
- WTI trades at 58.78 after rebounding from sub-$58 lows
- Fed cut odds above 65% help weaken the USD, supporting crude
- Progress in Russia–Ukraine talks adds uncertainty, not clarity
- API inventory report due today — key near-term catalyst
Market Overview
WTI crude oil rebounded on Monday, lifting from four-week lows as traders reacted to improved risk appetite and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts. The December cut probability has jumped back above 65%, weakening the Dollar and offering a tailwind for energy markets.
Monday’s rebound also reflected deep oversold conditions, triggering short covering after last week’s drop below $58. Markets also continue to monitor peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine — a highly nuanced factor:
- A successful agreement would remove geopolitical premium (bearish)
- Failed talks could spark supply fears (bullish)
- Ongoing uncertainty = volatility
Despite Monday’s strength, the structural picture remains bearish.
US rig counts have ticked up to 419, production sits near record highs (13.83M bpd), and EIA inventories continue to rise. Saudi Arabia’s elevated export levels (above 7.2M bpd) and global oversupply projections through 2026 keep upside potential limited.
Today’s API weekly crude report will determine whether this recovery holds or fades. A large build would quickly cap gains; a sharp draw could push crude toward $60.
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic climbing toward overbought — rally extension but nearing exhaustion
- Price sits slightly above 20-period MA — early recovery structure
- Bulls need follow-through above first resistance zone
Key Levels (Updated 4H)
Current Price: 58.78
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 59.50 | 58.13 |
| 60.06 | 57.54 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI crude is stabilizing, but upside remains limited without stronger fundamentals.
A break above 59.50 opens the door to 60.06, but failure to hold above 58.13 risks a slide back toward 57.54.
API data will define the next move — rallies remain vulnerable unless supported by inventory draws and improved demand signals.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Always trade responsibly.